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Modern data analysis and statistical learning are marked by complex data structures and black-box algorithms. Data complexity stems from technologies such as imaging, remote sensing, wearable devices, and genomic sequencing. At the same…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Jing Lei

It is crucial to assess the predictive performance of a model to establish its practicality and relevance in real-world scenarios, particularly for high-dimensional data analysis. Among data splitting or resampling methods, cross-validation…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-26 Iris Ivy Gauran , Hernando Ombao , Zhaoxia Yu

An important question in constructing Cross Validation (CV) estimators of the generalization error is whether rules can be established that allow "optimal" selection of the size of the training set, for fixed sample size $n$. We define the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-11 Georgios Afendras , Marianthi Markatou

Cross validation is a central tool in evaluating the performance of machine learning and statistical models. However, despite its ubiquitous role, its theoretical properties are still not well understood. We study the asymptotic properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-30 Morgane Austern , Wenda Zhou

Cross-validation is a standard tool for obtaining a honest assessment of the performance of a prediction model. The commonly used version repeatedly splits data, trains the prediction model on the training set, evaluates the model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-10 Tianyu Pan , Vincent Z. Yu , Viswanath Devanarayan , Lu Tian

This work develops central limit theorems for cross-validation and consistent estimators of its asymptotic variance under weak stability conditions on the learning algorithm. Together, these results provide practical, asymptotically-exact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-03 Pierre Bayle , Alexandre Bayle , Lucas Janson , Lester Mackey

Careful tuning of a regularization parameter is indispensable in many machine learning tasks because it has a significant impact on generalization performances. Nevertheless, current practice of regularization parameter tuning is more of an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-23 Atsushi Shibagaki , Yoshiki Suzuki , Masayuki Karasuyama , Ichiro Takeuchi

Cross-validation is the standard approach for tuning parameter selection in many non-parametric regression problems. However its use is less common in change-point regression, perhaps as its prediction error-based criterion may appear to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-13 Florian Pein , Rajen D. Shah

This paper investigates the efficiency of the K-fold cross-validation (CV) procedure and a debiased version thereof as a means of estimating the generalization risk of a learning algorithm. We work under the general assumption of uniform…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-13 Anass Aghbalou , François Portier , Anne Sabourin

In the network literature, a wide range of statistical models has been proposed to exploit structural patterns in the data. Therefore, model selection between different models is a fundamental problem. However, there remains a lack of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Bokai Yang , Yuanxing Chen , Yuhong Yang

Despite ongoing theoretical research on cross-validation (CV), many theoretical questions remain widely open. This motivates our investigation into how properties of algorithm-distribution pairs can affect the choice for the number of folds…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-09 Ido Nachum , Rüdiger Urbanke , Thomas Weinberger

We investigate generically applicable and intuitively appealing prediction intervals based on $k$-fold cross validation. We focus on the conditional coverage probability of the proposed intervals, given the observations in the training…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-13 Lukas Steinberger , Hannes Leeb

Conformal risk control (CRC) is a recently proposed technique that applies post-hoc to a conventional point predictor to provide calibration guarantees. Generalizing conformal prediction (CP), with CRC, calibration is ensured for a set…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Kfir M. Cohen , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Shlomo Shamai

Cross-validation (CV) is a technique used to estimate generalization error for prediction models. For pipeline modeling algorithms (i.e. modeling procedures with multiple steps), it has been recommended the entire sequence of steps be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-05 Byron C. Jaeger , Nicholas J. Tierney , Noah R. Simon

Ensemble methods such as bagging and random forests are ubiquitous in various fields, from finance to genomics. Despite their prevalence, the question of the efficient tuning of ensemble parameters has received relatively little attention.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Jin-Hong Du , Pratik Patil , Kathryn Roeder , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

We develop an approximation formula for the cross-validation error (CVE) of a sparse linear regression penalized by $\ell_1$-norm and total variation terms, which is based on a perturbative expansion utilizing the largeness of both the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-13 Tomoyuki Obuchi , Shiro Ikeda , Kazunori Akiyama , Yoshiyuki Kabashima

This paper describes a method for performing inference on models chosen by cross-validation. When the test error being minimized in cross-validation is a residual sum of squares it can be written as a quadratic form. This allows us to apply…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-01 Joshua R. Loftus

Cross-validation is frequently used for model selection in a variety of applications. However, it is difficult to apply cross-validation to mixed effects models (including nonlinear mixed effects models or NLME models) due to the fact that…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-24 Emily Colby , Eric Bair

Cross-validation (CV) is routinely used across the sciences to select models and tune parameters, and the resulting choices are often interpreted as substantive scientific conclusions (e.g., which variables, mechanisms, or risk factors are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Kenichiro McAlinn , Kōsaku Takanashi

One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-02 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Jonah Gabry , Aki Vehtari