Related papers: Large Fluctuations in Locational Marginal Prices
The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant challenges to power grid stability, primarily due to their inherent variability. A new opportunity for grid operation is the smart integration of electricity…
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for energy markets stakeholders (e.g. grid operators, energy traders, policymakers) but remains challenging due to the inherent volatility and nonlinearity of price signals. Traditional…
Measurements of CMB temperature fluctuations by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) indicate that the fluctuation amplitude in one half of the sky differs from the amplitude in the other half. We show that such an asymmetry…
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these…
We propose an artificial market model based on deterministic agents. The agents modify their ask/bid price depending on past price changes. The temporal development of market price fluctuations is calculated numerically. A probability…
We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous…
Cooperative events requiring anomalously large fluctuations are a defining characteristic for the onset of glassy relaxation across many materials. The importance of such intermittent events has been noted in systems as diverse as…
For several flows of laboratory turbulence, we obtain long records of velocity data. These records are divided into numerous segments. In each segment, we calculate the mean rate of energy dissipation, the mean energy at each scale, and the…
The paper presents an innovative approach to identifying voltage fluctuation sources in power networks, also considering the localization understood as the indication of supply points of disturbing loads. The presented approach considers…
In this article, the joint fluctuations of the extreme eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a large dimensional sample covariance matrix are analyzed when the associated population covariance matrix is a finite-rank perturbation of the identity…
The recent research report of U.S. Department of Energy prompts us to re-examine the pricing theories applied in electricity market design. The theory of spot pricing is the basis of electricity market design in many countries, but it has…
In the framework of chaotic inflation we study the case of a massive scalar field using a semiclassical approach. We derive the energy density fluctuations in the infrared sector generated by matter field and gauge-invariant metric…
Power systems with high renewable energy penetration are highly influenced by weather conditions, often facing significant challenges such as persistent power shortages and severe power fluctuations over long time scales. This paper…
The interactions of the natural gas (NG) network and the electricity system are increased by using gas-fired generation units, which use NG to produce electricity. There are various uncertainty sources such as the forced outage of…
Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explores a novel methodology aimed at improving the accuracy of…
We examine dynamic coupling and feedback effects between High Frequency Traders (HFTs) and how they can destabilize markets. We develop a general framework for modelling dynamic interaction based on recurrence relations, and use this to…
We analyze the probabilities of large infrequent fluctuations in systems driven by external fields. In a broad range of the field magnitudes, the logarithm of the fluctuation probability is linear in the field magnitude, and the response…
The smart grid vision entails advanced information technology and data analytics to enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and economics of the power grid infrastructure. Aligned to this end, modern statistical learning tools are leveraged…
We determine the uncorrelated modes that characterize the fluctuations in a semi-realistic model for the initial state of high-energy nuclear collisions, consisting of hot spots whose positions are distributed independently. Varying the…
We estimate large-scale curvature perturbations from isocurvature fluctuations in the waterfall field during hybrid inflation, in addition to the usual inflaton field perturbations. The tachyonic instability at the end of inflation leads to…