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We introduce the notion of p*-values (p*-variables), which generalizes p-values (p-variables) in several senses. The new notion has four natural interpretations: operational, probabilistic, Bayesian, and frequentist. A main example of a…
A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors all have their defenders. In this paper we…
We study a large-scale one-sided multiple testing problem in which test statistics follow normal distributions with unit variance, and the goal is to identify signals with positive mean effects. A conventional approach is to compute…
The usual procedure for estimating the significance of a peak in a power spectrum is to calculate the probability of obtaining that value or a larger value by chance (known as the "p-value"), on the assumption that the time series contains…
In statistics, there are a variety of methods for performing model selection that all stem from slightly different paradigms of statistical inference. The reasons for choosing one particular method over another seem to be based entirely on…
In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the…
It is widely acknowledged that the biomedical literature suffer from a surfeit of false positive results. Part of the reason for this is the persistence of the myth that observation of a p value less than 0.05 is sufficient justification to…
We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…
Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…
We develop the distribution of the number of hypotheses found to be statistically significant using the rule from Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). This distribution has both a small sample form…
Testing to see whether a given data set comes from some specified distribution is among the oldest types of problems in Statistics. Many such tests have been developed and their performance studied. The general result has been that while a…
In this paper, we propose an explicit closed-form Bayes factor for the problem of two-sample hypothesis testing. The proposed approach can be regarded as a Bayesian version of the pooled-variance t-statistic and has various appealing…
Despite their importance in supporting experimental conclusions, standard statistical tests are often inadequate for research areas, like the life sciences, where the typical sample size is small and the test assumptions difficult to…
Usually one compares the accuracy of two competing classifiers via null hypothesis significance tests (nhst). Yet the nhst tests suffer from important shortcomings, which can be overcome by switching to Bayesian hypothesis testing. We…
The customary use of P-values in scientific research has been attacked as being ill-conceived, and the utility of P-values has been derided. This paper reviews common misconceptions about P-values and their alleged deficits as indices of…
When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…
Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…
Bayesian inference provides a principled probabilistic framework for quantifying uncertainty by updating beliefs based on prior knowledge and observed data through Bayes' theorem. In Bayesian deep learning, neural network weights are…
A standard practice in statistical hypothesis testing is to mention the p-value alongside the accept/reject decision. We show the advantages of mentioning an e-value instead. With p-values, it is not clear how to use an extreme observation…
This paper deals with a new Bayesian approach to the two-sample problem. More specifically, let $x=(x_1,\ldots,x_{n_1})$ and $y=(y_1,\ldots,y_{n_2})$ be two independent samples coming from unknown distributions $F$ and $G$, respectively.…