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We consider stationary stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating a given observable along the orbits of the system. We focus on the extremal behaviour of the process, which is related to the entrance in certain…

We study the statistical distribution of the closest encounter between observations computed along different trajectories of a mixing dynamical system. At the limit of large trajectories, the distribution is of Gumbel type and depends on…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-04-29 Théophile Caby

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-04 Marc Höll , Wanli Wang , Eli Barkai

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Meagan Carney , Mark Holland , Matthew Nicol , Phuong Tran

We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 N. R. Moloney , J. Davidsen

We show that generalised extreme value statistics -the statistics of the k-th largest value among a large set of random variables- can be mapped onto a problem of random sums. This allows us to identify classes of non-identical and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Eric Bertin , Maxime Clusel

We study the statistics of the maximum and minimum of a set of $N$ random variables whose dynamical and statistical properties fall within the scope of infinite ergodic theory. These non-stationary yet recurrent systems are described, in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-09 Talia Baravi , Eli Barkai

It has been shown that sufficiently well mixing dynamical systems with positive entropy have extreme value laws which in the limit converge to one of the three standard distributions known for i.i.d. processes, namely Gumbel, Fr\'echet and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-05 Nicolai Haydn , Michal Kupsa

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

Extreme value theory is part and parcel of any study of order statistics in one dimension. Our aim here is to consider such large sample theory for the maximum distance to the origin, and the related maximum "interpoint distance," in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-30 Sreenivasa Rao Jammalamadaka , Svante Janson

Typically, in the dynamical theory of extremal events, the function that gauges the intensity of a phenomenon is assumed to be convex and maximal, or singular, at a single, or at most a finite collection of points in phase--space. In this…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-09-21 Giorgio Mantica , Luca Perotti

A discrete version of the Gumbel (Type I) extreme value distribution has been derived by using the general approach of discretization of a continuous distribution. Important distributional and reliability properties have been explored. It…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-29 Subrata Chakraborty , Dhrubajyoti Chakravarty

We explain how the statistics of global observables in correlated systems can be related to extreme value problems and to Gumbel statistics. This relationship then naturally leads to the emergence of the generalized Gumbel distribution…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Eric Bertin

We show how convergence to the Gumbel distribution in an extreme value setting can be understood in an information-theoretic sense. We introduce a new type of score function which behaves well under the maximum operation, and which implies…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-22 Oliver Johnson

The statistical distribution of the largest value drawn from a sample of a given size has only three possible shapes: it is either a Weibull, a Fr\'echet or a Gumbel extreme value distributions. I describe in this short review how to relate…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-09-22 Alex Hansen

We prove the equivalence between the existence of a non-trivial hitting time statistics law and Extreme Value Laws in the case of dynamical systems with measures which are not absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue. This is a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2012-09-14 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

The generalized extreme value distribution and its particular case, the Gumbel extreme value distribution, are widely applied for extreme value analysis. The Gumbel distribution has certain drawbacks because it is a non-heavy-tailed…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-08-12 E. C. Pinheiro , S. L. P. Ferrari

We study the statistical distribution of the closest encounter between generic smooth observations computed along different trajectories of a rapidly mixing dynamical system. At the limit of large trajectories, we obtain a distribution of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2022-08-31 Theophile Caby

Extreme value distributions are routinely employed to assess risks connected to extreme events in a large number of applications. They typically are two- or three- parameter distributions: the inference can be unstable, which is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-19 Nathan Huet , Ilaria Prosdocimi

Extreme value theory for chaotic dynamical systems is a rapidly expanding area of research. Given a system and a real function (observable) defined on its phase space, extreme value theory studies the limit probabilistic laws obeyed by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Mark P. Holland , Renato Vitolo , Pau Rabassa , Alef E. Sterk , Henk W. Broer
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