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Diffusion models have been recently studied as powerful generative inverse problem solvers, owing to their high quality reconstructions and the ease of combining existing iterative solvers. However, most works focus on solving simple linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-06 Hyungjin Chung , Jeongsol Kim , Michael T. Mccann , Marc L. Klasky , Jong Chul Ye

Monte Carlo (MC) integration is the de facto method for approximating the predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). But, even with many MC samples, Gaussian-based BNNs could still yield bad predictive performance due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Agustinus Kristiadi , Runa Eschenhagen , Philipp Hennig

Minimization of a stochastic cost function is commonly used for approximate sampling in high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian prior distributions and multimodal posterior distributions. The density of the samples…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-06-03 Yuming Ba , Jana de Wiljes , Dean S. Oliver , Sebastian Reich

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Jan van Waaij

We study the use of Gaussian process emulators to approximate the parameter-to-observation map or the negative log-likelihood in Bayesian inverse problems. We prove error bounds on the Hellinger distance between the true posterior…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Andrew M. Stuart , Aretha L. Teckentrup

Diffusion models are a remarkably effective way of learning and sampling from a distribution $p(x)$. In posterior sampling, one is also given a measurement model $p(y \mid x)$ and a measurement $y$, and would like to sample from $p(x \mid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Shivam Gupta , Ajil Jalal , Aditya Parulekar , Eric Price , Zhiyang Xun

Recently developed particle flow algorithms provide an alternative to importance sampling for drawing particles from a posterior distribution, and a number of particle filters based on this principle have been proposed. Samples are drawn…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-01 Pete Bunch , Simon Godsill

Efficient sampling from a high-dimensional Gaussian distribution is an old but high-stake issue. Vanilla Cholesky samplers imply a computational cost and memory requirements which can rapidly become prohibitive in high dimension. To tackle…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-25 Maxime Vono , Nicolas Dobigeon , Pierre Chainais

Data-driven Model Predictive Control (MPC), where the system model is learned from data with machine learning, has recently gained increasing interests in the control community. Gaussian Processes (GP), as a type of statistical models, are…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-10-03 Truong X. Nghiem

Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a powerful non-parametric framework for reasoning over functions. Despite appealing theory, its superlinear computational and memory complexities have presented a long-standing challenge. State-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-16 Hugh Salimbeni , Ching-An Cheng , Byron Boots , Marc Deisenroth

Diffusion models enable the synthesis of highly accurate samples from complex distributions and have become foundational in generative modeling. Recently, they have demonstrated significant potential for solving Bayesian inverse problems by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Jimmy Olsson , Eric Moulines

Accurate assessment of systematic uncertainties is an increasingly vital task in physics studies, where large, high-dimensional datasets, like those collected at the Large Hadron Collider, hold the key to new discoveries. Common approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-02 Alexis Romero , Kyle Cranmer , Daniel Whiteson

The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-14 Yue Wu , Jose Miguel Hernandez Lobato , Zoubin Ghahramani

As a non-parametric Bayesian model which produces informative predictive distribution, Gaussian process (GP) has been widely used in various fields, like regression, classification and optimization. The cubic complexity of standard GP…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-06 Haitao Liu , Jianfei Cai , Yew-Soon Ong , Yi Wang

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is shown to be effective for learning unknown dynamics, enabling efficient and safety-aware control strategies across diverse applications. However, existing GP-based model predictive control (GP-MPC)…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-13 Manish Prajapat , Johannes Köhler , Amon Lahr , Andreas Krause , Melanie N. Zeilinger

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

In many problems, complex non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear models are required to accurately describe a physical system of interest. In such cases, Monte Carlo algorithms are remarkably flexible and extremely powerful approaches to solve such…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-23 Thi Le Thu Nguyen , Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters , Yves Delignon

Intractable posterior distributions of parameters with intractable normalizing constants depending upon the parameters are known as doubly intractable posterior distributions. The terminology itself indicates that obtaining Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-16 Sourabh Bhattacharya

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…