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Standard MCMC methods can scale poorly to big data settings due to the need to evaluate the likelihood at each iteration. There have been a number of approximate MCMC algorithms that use sub-sampling ideas to reduce this computational…
We develop a scalable class of models for latent variable estimation using composite Gaussian processes, with a focus on derivative Gaussian processes. We jointly model multiple data sources as outputs to improve the accuracy of latent…
Gaussian processes regression models are an appealing machine learning method as they learn expressive non-linear models from exemplar data with minimal parameter tuning and estimate both the mean and covariance of unseen points. However,…
A central task in many applications is reasoning about processes that change over continuous time. Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks is a general compact representation language for multi-component continuous-time processes. However, exact…
Thompson sampling (TS) is a simple, effective stochastic policy in Bayesian decision making. It samples the posterior belief about the reward profile and optimizes the sample to obtain a candidate decision. In continuous optimization, the…
We propose a principled way to define Gaussian process priors on various sets of unweighted graphs: directed or undirected, with or without loops. We endow each of these sets with a geometric structure, inducing the notions of closeness and…
We introduce a new scalable approximation for Gaussian processes with provable guarantees which hold simultaneously over its entire parameter space. Our approximation is obtained from an improved sample complexity analysis for sparse…
We introduce a scalable Gaussian process (GP) framework with deep product kernels for data-driven learning of parametrized spatio-temporal fields over fixed or parameter-dependent domains. The proposed framework learns a continuous…
In this paper we develop non-asymptotic Gaussian approximation results for the sampling distribution of suprema of empirical processes when the indexing function class $\mathcal{F}_n$ varies with the sample size $n$ and may not be Donsker.…
Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a highly flexible, nonparametric statistical model that are commonly used to fit nonlinear relationships or account for correlation between observations. However, the computational load of fitting a Gaussian…
Bayesian estimation of Gaussian graphical models has proven to be challenging because the conjugate prior distribution on the Gaussian precision matrix, the G-Wishart distribution, has a doubly intractable partition function. Recent…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions. Fitting a GP implies computing a posterior distribution of functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) should allow us to compute a…
In this work we review the application of the theory of Gaussian processes to the modeling of noise in pulsar-timing data analysis, and we derive various useful and optimized representations for the likelihood expressions that are needed in…
Doubly intractable distributions arise in many settings, for example in Markov models for point processes and exponential random graph models for networks. Bayesian inference for these models is challenging because they involve intractable…
Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a…
A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible, probabilistic, nonparametric models widely used in fields such as spatial statistics and machine learning. A drawback of Gaussian processes is their computational cost, with $O(N^3)$ time and $O(N^2)$…
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are hierarchical generalizations of Gaussian Processes that combine well calibrated uncertainty estimates with the high flexibility of multilayer models. One of the biggest challenges with these models is that…
This paper tackles the challenge presented by small-data to the task of Bayesian inference. A novel methodology, based on manifold learning and manifold sampling, is proposed for solving this computational statistics problem under the…