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Vector-borne diseases often infect multiple host species, increasing the likelihood of disease persistence due to the presence of multiple reservoirs. Vector biting patterns and feeding preferences can shift in response to selective…
Wolbachia is a naturally occurring bacterium that can infect Aedes mosquitoes and reduce the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue fever, Zika, and chikungunya. Field trials have been conducted worldwide to suppress…
Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…
This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
Accurate forecasting of infectious disease dynamics is critical for public health planning and intervention. Human mobility plays a central role in shaping the spatial spread of epidemics, but mobility data are noisy, indirect, and…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…
In this paper we study a mathematical model for an infectious disease such as Cholera without life-time immunity. Due to the different mobility for susceptible, infected human and recovered human hosts, the diffusion coefficients are…
Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information…
Cities have long served as nucleating centers for human development and advancement. Cities have facilitated the spread of both human creativity and human disease, and at the same time, efforts to minimize the spread of disease have…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
Wolbachia is a natural bacterium that can infect mosquitoes and reduce their ability to transmit mosquito-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, Zika, and chikungunya. Field trials and modeling studies have shown that the fraction of…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…
Predicting the human burden of vector-borne diseases from limited surveillance data remains a major challenge, particularly in the presence of nonlinear transmission dynamics and delayed effects arising from vector ecology and human…
Mosquitoes are vectors of many human diseases. In particular, Aedes \ae gypti (Linnaeus) is the main vector for Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika viruses in Latin America and it represents a global threat. Public health policies that aim at…
In Southern Italy, since 2013, there has been an ongoing Olive Quick Decline Syndrome (OQDS) outbreak, due to the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa. In a couple of previous papers, the authors have proposed a mathematical approach for…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…