Related papers: Equilibrium and sensitivity analysis of a spatio-t…
Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
We propose and analyze an epidemiological model for vector borne diseases that integrates a multi-stage vector population and several host sub-populations which may be characterized by a variety of compartmental model types: subpopulations…
Spatio-temporal pathogen spread is often partially observed at the metapopulation scale. Available data correspond to proxies and are incomplete, censored and heterogeneous. Moreover, representing such biological systems often leads to…
Epidemic data often possess certain characteristics, such as the presence of many zeros, the spatial nature of the disease spread mechanism or environmental noise. This paper addresses these issues via suitable Bayesian modelling. In doing…
Invasion of new territories by alien organisms is of primary concern for environmental and health agencies and has been a core topic in mathematical modeling, in particular in the intents of reconstructing the past dynamics of the alien…
This research presents an advanced fractional-order compartmental model designed to delve into the complexities of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, specifically accounting for the influence of environmental pathogens on disease spread. By…
This paper introduces an innovative model for infectious diseases in predator-prey populations. We not only prove the existence of global non-negative solutions but also establish essential criteria for the system's decline and…
The data for the Ebola outbreak that occurred in 2014-2016 in three countries of West Africa are analysed within a common framework. The analysis is made using the results of an agent based Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model on a…
The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has led to a surge in the interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. Disease transmission may be modeled as compartmental models, in which the population under study is divided into…
As South and Central American countries prepare for increased birth defects from Zika virus outbreaks and plan for mitigation strategies to minimize ongoing and future outbreaks, understanding important characteristics of Zika outbreaks and…
We propose a deterministic compartmental model of infectious disease which considers the test-kits as an important ingredient for the suppression and mitigation of epidemics. A rigorous simulation (with analytical argument) is provided to…
The SIR model is one of the most prototypical compartmental models in epidemiology. Generalizing this ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework into a spatially distributed partial differential equation (PDE) model is a considerable…
The resurgence of vector-borne diseases is an increasing public health concern, and there is a need for a better understanding of their dynamics. For a number of diseases, e.g. dengue and chikungunya, this resurgence occurs mostly in urban…
It is possible to model vector-borne infection using the classical Ross-Macdonald model. This attempt, however fails in several respects. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, the model predicts a much greater number of cases…
The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…
This paper investigates the spread of infectious diseases within a networked community by integrating epidemic transmission and public opinion dynamics. We propose a novel discrete-time networked SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible)…
Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…
Ticks and tick-borne diseases present a well known threat to the health of people in many parts of the globe. The scientific literature devoted both to field observations and to modeling the propagation of ticks continues to grow. So far…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…