Related papers: Crisis contagion in the world trade network
The European sovereign debt crisis has impaired many European banks. The distress on the European banks may transmit worldwide, and result in a large-scale knock-on default of financial institutions. This study presents a computer…
The stability of a complex financial system may be assessed by measuring risk contagion between various financial institutions with relatively high exposure. We consider a financial network model using a bipartite graph of financial…
The outbreak of covid-19 started many months ago, the reported origin was in Wuhan Market, China. Fastly, this virus was propagated to other countries because the access to international travels is affordable and many countries have a…
A major impact of globalization has been the information flow across the financial markets rendering them vulnerable to financial contagion. Research has focused on network analysis techniques to understand the extent and nature of such…
We have conducted an agent-based simulation of chain bankruptcy. The propagation of credit risk on a network, i.e., chain bankruptcy, is the key to nderstanding largesized bankruptcies. In our model, decrease of revenue by the loss of…
Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of static networks ranging from biology to computer and social sciences and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a…
We apply the reduced Google matrix method to analyse interactions between 95 terrorist groups and determine their relationships and influence on 64 world countries. This is done on the basis of the Google matrix of the English Wikipedia…
In this paper, we employ Credit Default Swaps (CDS) to model the joint and conditional distress probabilities of banks in Europe and the U.S. using factor copulas. We propose multi-factor, structured factor, and factor-vine models where the…
This paper proposes a time-zone vector autoregression (VAR) model to investigate comovements in the global financial market. Analyzing daily data from 36 national equity markets, we explore the subprime and European debt crises using static…
The Chinese stock market experienced an abrupt crash in 2015, and over one-third of its market value evaporated. Given its associations with fear and the fine resolution with respect to frequency, the illiquidity of stocks may offer a…
The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the…
This paper studies the problem of identifying the contagion source when partial timestamps of a contagion process are available. We formulate the source localization problem as a ranking problem on graphs, where infected nodes are ranked…
This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify…
The present paper provides a multi-period contagion model in the credit risk field. Our model is an extension of Davis and Lo's infectious default model. We consider an economy of n firms which may default directly or may be infected by…
We propose a deterministic compartmental model of infectious disease which considers the test-kits as an important ingredient for the suppression and mitigation of epidemics. A rigorous simulation (with analytical argument) is provided to…
National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…
In the paper we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used in inferential network analysis and spatial econometrics. The…
This work proposes an augmented variant of DebtRank with uncertainty intervals as a method to investigate and assess systemic risk in financial networks, in a context of incomplete data. The algorithm is tested against a default contagion…
In this paper, we investigate the statistical features of the weighted international-trade network. By finding the maximum weight spanning trees for this network we make the extraction of the truly relevant connections forming the network's…
This study examines the global impacts of a localized disruption in Qatar's gas sector using a multi-regional input-output framework and scenario-based analysis. While the direct impacts of this disruption on importing countries are clear,…