Related papers: Crisis contagion in the world trade network
Uncovering the risk transmitting path within economic sectors in China is crucial for understanding the stability of the Chinese economic system, especially under the current situation of the China-US trade conflicts. In this paper, we try…
Only a fast and global transformation towards decarbonization and sustainability can keep the Earth in a civilization-friendly state. As hotspots for (green) innovation and experimentation, cities could play an important role in this…
In today's global economy, supply chain (SC) entities have become increasingly interconnected with demand and supply relationships due to the need for strategic outsourcing. Such interdependence among firms not only increases efficiency but…
We use methods from network science to analyze corruption risk in a large administrative dataset of over 4 million public procurement contracts from European Union member states covering the years 2008-2016. By mapping procurement markets…
We present data on debt accumulation in Australia and the United States, and tentative data on Romania, to pose the question of whether Romania might experience a credit crunch as a result of the US subprime financial crisis. We develop a…
Value chain data is crucial to navigate economic disruptions, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Yet, despite its importance, publicly available value chain datasets, such as the ``World Input-Output…
We study corruption as a generalized epidemic process on the graph of social relationships. The main difference to classical epidemic processes is the strong nonlinear dependence of the transmission probability on the local density of…
Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they…
Jointly modeling and forecasting economic and financial variables across a large set of countries has long been a significant challenge. Two primary approaches have been utilized to address this issue: the vector autoregressive model with…
Using the United Nations Comtrade database, we perform the Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct World Trade Network (WTN) for the years 2018-2020 comprising the emergence of the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The applied algorithms --…
Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial…
During a financial crisis, the capital markets network frequently exhibits a high correlation between returns. We developed a network analysis framework based on daily returns from 42 countries to determine systemic stability. Our network…
Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach…
We consider a general tractable model for default contagion and systemic risk in a heterogeneous financial network, subject to an exogenous macroeconomic shock. We show that, under some regularity assumptions, the default cascade model…
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the…
A financial system contains many elements networked by their relationships. Extensive works show that topological structure of the network stores rich information on evolutionary behaviors of the system such as early warning signals of…
We address the joint detection-and-attribution problem in cross-border financial contagion through a two-stage framework. The first stage applies wavelet-quantile transfer entropy across time-scales and lower, median, and upper-tail…
In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as Maximum Entropy currently used to reconstruct…
Global food security depends on tightly coupled international supply chains including natural gas, mineral fertilizers, and staple crops. Earlier research has examined potential consequences of disruptions in each of these domains…
Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the…