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A stochastic nonlinear dynamical system generates information, as measured by its entropy rate. Some---the ephemeral information---is dissipated and some---the bound information---is actively stored and so affects future behavior. We derive…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-19 Sarah Marzen , James P. Crutchfield

The mean exit time escaping basin of attraction in the presence of white noise is of practical importance in various scientific fields. In this work, we propose a strategy to control mean exit time of general stochastic dynamical systems to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-09 Yang Li , Shenglan Yuan , Shengyuan Xu

We consider a finite dimensional deterministic dynamical system with a global attractor A with a unique ergodic measure P concentrated on it, which is uniformly parametrized by the mean of the trajectories in a bounded set D containing A.…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-21 Michael Högele , Ilya Pavlyukevich

Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Charlotte Moser , Nan Chen , Marios Andreou

Trust is the invisible glue that holds together the fabric of societies, economic systems, and political institutions. Yet, its dynamics-especially in real-world settings remain unpredictable and difficult to control. While classical trust…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-05 Mohamadali Berahman , Madjid Eshaghi Gordji

We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-17 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , James Hensman , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Although the governing equations of many systems, when derived from first principles, may be viewed as known, it is often too expensive to numerically simulate all the interactions they describe. Therefore researchers often seek simpler…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-03 Tapio Schneider , Andrew M. Stuart , Jin-Long Wu

The Fokker-Planck equation has been very useful for studying dynamic behavior of stochastic differential equations driven by Gaussian noises. In this paper, we derive a Fractional Fokker--Planck equation for the probability distribution of…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2009-11-10 D. Schertzer , M. Larchev , J. Duan , V. V. Yanovsky , S. Lovejoy

We study the long-time dynamics in non-Markovian single-population stochastic models, where one or more reactions are modelled as a stochastic process with a fat-tailed non-exponential distribution of waiting times, mimicking long-term…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-04-05 Ohad Vilk , Michael Assaf

A stochastic process with movement, return, and rest phases is considered in this paper. For the movement phase, the particles move following the dynamics of Gaussian process or ballistic type of L\'evy walk, and the time of each movement…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-12-01 Tian Zhou , Pengbo Xu , Weihua Deng

Networks are landmarks of many complex phenomena where interweaving interactions between different agents transform simple local rule-sets into nonlinear emergent behaviors. While some recent studies unveil associations between the network…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-08-05 Ali Tavasoli , Teague Henry , Heman Shakeri

Stochastic Thermodynamics uses Markovian jump processes to model random transitions between observable mesoscopic states. Physical currents are obtained from anti-symmetric jump observables defined on the edges of the graph representing the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-10-19 Artur Wachtel , Jürgen Vollmer , Bernhard Altaner

This paper establishes a Transition Path Theory (TPT) for L\'{e}vy-type processes, addressing a critical gap in the study of the transition mechanism between meta-stabile states in non-Gaussian stochastic systems. A key contribution is the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-04 Yuanfei Huang , Xiang Zhou

Moving average processes driven by exponential-tailed L\'evy noise are important extensions of their Gaussian counterparts in order to capture deviations from Gaussianity, more flexible dependence structures, and sample paths with jumps.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Zhongwei Zhang , David Bolin , Sebastian Engelke , Raphaël Huser

Many time series are effectively generated by a combination of deterministic continuous flows along with discrete jumps sparked by stochastic events. However, we usually do not have the equation of motion describing the flows, or how they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-09 Junteng Jia , Austin R. Benson

Nonequilibrium statistical mechanics exhibit a variety of complex phenomena far from equilibrium. It inherits challenges of equilibrium, including accurately describing the joint distribution of a large number of configurations, and also…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-08 Ying Tang , Jing Liu , Jiang Zhang , Pan Zhang

In this paper, we deal with a class of time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov processes with transition probabilities bearing a nonparametric uncertainty. The uncertainty is modeled by considering perturbations of the transition…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-11 Sven Fuhrmann , Michael Kupper , Max Nendel

In this article, we study the dynamics of a nonlinear system governed by an ordinary differential equation under the combined influence of fast periodic sampling with period $\delta$ and small jump noise of size $\varepsilon, 0<…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-28 Shivam Singh Dhama

The Koopman operator enables the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems through a linear perspective by describing time evolution in the infinite-dimensional space of observables. Here this formalism is applied to shear flows, specifically…

Complex dynamical systems which are governed by anomalous diffusion often can be described by Langevin equations driven by L\'evy stable noise. In this article we generalize nonlinear stochastic differential equations driven by Gaussian…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-18 Rytis Kazakevicius , Julius Ruseckas
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