Related papers: State-Dependent Autoregressive Models: Properties,…
We present a method of parameter estimation for large class of nonlinear systems, namely those in which the state consists of output derivatives and the flow is linear in the parameter. The method, which solves for the unknown parameter by…
Both Hawkes processes and autoregressive processes rely on linear functionals of their past, while modeling different types of data. Since datasets arising from observations of the same phenomenon may be heterogeneous and sampled at…
A novel approach to the problem of partial state estimation of nonlinear systems is proposed. The main idea is to translate the state estimation problem into one of estimation of constant, unknown parameters related to the systems initial…
This paper introduces a new kind of seasonal fractional autoregressive process (SFAR) driven by fractional Gaussian noise (fGn). The new model includes a standard seasonal AR model and fGn. {The estimation of the parameters of this new…
We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy…
The paper develops a general flexible framework for Network Autoregressive Processes (NAR), wherein the response of each node linearly depends on its past values, a prespecified linear combination of neighboring nodes and a set of…
A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…
We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…
This paper presents a backfitting-type method for estimating and forecasting a periodically correlated partially linear model with exogeneous variables and heteroskedastic input noise. A rate of convergence of the estimator is given. The…
This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…
With regard to a three-step estimation procedure, proposed without theoretical discussion by Li and You in Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, for a nonparametric regression model with time-varying regression function, local…
Compartmental models, especially the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, have long been used to understand the behaviour of various diseases. Allowing parameters, such as the transmission rate, to be time-dependent functions makes it…
State-space models effectively model multivariate time series by updating over time a representation of the system state from which predictions are made. The state representation is usually a vector without any explicit structure.…
This paper introduces a Threshold Asymmetric Conditional Autoregressive Range (TACARR) formulation for modeling the daily price ranges of financial assets. It is assumed that the process generating the conditional expected ranges at each…
Stationarity is a very common assumption in time series analysis. A vector autoregressive process is stationary if and only if the roots of its characteristic equation lie outside the unit circle, constraining the autoregressive coefficient…
Hierarchical models for regionally aggregated disease incidence data commonly involve region specific latent random effects that are modeled jointly as having a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The covariance or precision matrix…
A scheme is developed for estimating state-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients in a stochastic differential equation from time-series data. The scheme does not require to specify parametric forms for the drift and diffusion…
We consider the problem of threshold estimation for autoregressive time series with a "space switching" in the situation, when the regression is nonlinear and the innovations have a smooth, possibly non Gaussian, probability density.…
The non-linear autoregressive (NLAR) model plays an important role in modeling and predicting time series. One-step ahead prediction is straightforward using the NLAR model, but the multi-step ahead prediction is cumbersome. For instance,…
The availability of data on economic uncertainty sparked a lot of interest in models that can timely quantify episodes of international spillovers of uncertainty. This challenging task involves trading off estimation accuracy for more…