Related papers: State-Dependent Autoregressive Models: Properties,…
A buffered double autoregressive (BDAR) time series model is proposed in this paper to depict the buffering phenomenon of conditional mean and conditional variance in time series. To build this model, a novel flexible regime switching…
We address the problem of learning graphical models which correspond to high dimensional autoregressive stationary stochastic processes. A graphical model describes the conditional dependence relations among the components of a stochastic…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…
We consider the problem of finding confidence intervals for the risk of forecasting the future of a stationary, ergodic stochastic process, using a model estimated from the past of the process. We show that a bootstrap procedure provides…
A Poisson autoregressive (PAR) model accounting for discreteness and autocorrelation of count time series data is typically estimated in the state-space modelling framework through extended Kalman filter. However, because of the complex…
We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…
Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
We consider the problem of asymptotic reconstruction of the state and parameter values in systems of ordinary differential equations. A solution to this problem is proposed for a class of systems of which the unknowns are allowed to be…
When considering the problem of forecasting a continuous-time stochastic process over an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past, the notion of Autoregressive Hilbert space processes (ARH) arises. This model can be seen as a…
In this contribution we introduce weakly locally stationary time series through the local approximation of the non-stationary covariance structure by a stationary one. This allows us to define autoregression coefficients in a non-stationary…
In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH…
High-dimensional time series are a core ingredient of the statistical modeling toolkit, for which numerous estimation methods are known.But when observations are scarce or corrupted, the learning task becomes much harder.The question is:…
In the autoregressive process of first order AR(1), a homogeneous correlated time series $u_t$ is recursively constructed as $u_t = q\; u_{t-1} + \sigma \;\epsilon_t$, using random Gaussian deviates $\epsilon_t$ and fixed values for the…
In this paper we discuss how the notion of subgeometric ergodicity in Markov chain theory can be exploited to study stationarity and ergodicity of nonlinear time series models. Subgeometric ergodicity means that the transition probability…
In this paper we propose a solution to the problem of parameter estimation of nonlinearly parameterized regressions--continuous or discrete time--and apply it for system identification and adaptive control. We restrict our attention to…
Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…
We propose a first-order autoregressive (i.e. AR(1)) model for dynamic network processes in which edges change over time while nodes remain unchanged. The model depicts the dynamic changes explicitly. It also facilitates simple and…
Contemporary time series data often feature objects connected by a social network that naturally induces temporal dependence involving connected neighbours. The network vector autoregressive model is useful for describing the influence of…
We discuss existence and uniqueness of stationary and ergodic nonlinear autoregressive processes when exogenous regressors are incorporated in the dynamic. To this end, we consider the convergence of the backward iterations of dependent…