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This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

When underlying probability density functions of nonlinear dynamic systems are unknown, the filtering problem is known to be a challenging problem. This paper attempts to make progress on this problem by proposing a new class of filtering…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-17 Zhiguo Wang , Xiaojing Shen , Yunmin Zhu , Jianxin Pan

A recent line of research has exploited pre-trained generative diffusion models as priors for solving Bayesian inverse problems. We contribute to this research direction by designing a sequential Monte Carlo method for linear-Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Filip Ekström Kelvinius , Zheng Zhao , Fredrik Lindsten

It is proposed in the literature that in some complicated problems maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) are not suitable or even do not exist. An alternative to MLE for estimation of the parameters is the Bayesian method. The Markov chain…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-08 Ali Reza Fotouhi

Sequential Monte Carlo samplers represent a compelling approach to posterior inference in Bayesian models, due to being parallelisable and providing an unbiased estimate of the posterior normalising constant. In this work, we significantly…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Samuel Duffield , Sumeetpal S. Singh

We consider a flexible semiparametric quantile regression model for analyzing high dimensional heterogeneous data. This model has several appealing features: (1) By considering different conditional quantiles, we may obtain a more complete…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-25 Ben Sherwood , Lan Wang

Models of stochastic processes are widely used in almost all fields of science. Theory validation, parameter estimation, and prediction all require model calibration and statistical inference using data. However, data are almost always…

Computation · Statistics 2022-09-07 David J. Warne , Thomas P. Prescott , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

Effectively modeling phenomena present in highly nonlinear dynamical systems whilst also accurately quantifying uncertainty is a challenging task, which often requires problem-specific techniques. We present a novel, domain-agnostic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-26 Thomas M. McDonald , Mauricio A. Álvarez

We describe an efficient domain decomposition-based framework for nonlinear multiscale PDE problems. The framework is inspired by manifold learning techniques and exploits the tangent spaces spanned by the nearest neighbors to compress…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-10 Shi Chen , Qin Li , Jianfeng Lu , Stephen J. Wright

We propose a novel type of nonlinear solver acceleration for systems of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs) that is based on online/adaptive learning. It is applied in the context of multiphase flow in porous media. The proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Vinicius L S Silva , Pablo Salinas , Claire E Heaney , Matthew Jackson , Christopher C Pain

In complex physical systems, conventional differential equations often fall short in capturing non-local and memory effects, as they are limited to local dynamics and integer-order interactions. This study introduces a stepwise data-driven…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-05-30 Xiangnan Yu , Hao Xu , Zhiping Mao , HongGuang Sun , Yong Zhang , Dongxiao Zhang , Yuntian Chen

Partial differential equations (PDEs) play a crucial role in studying a vast number of problems in science and engineering. Numerically solving nonlinear and/or high-dimensional PDEs is often a challenging task. Inspired by the traditional…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-01-11 Yihao Hu , Tong Zhao , Shixin Xu , Zhiliang Xu , Lizhen Lin

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-12-14 Martin Heßler , Oliver Kamps

The paper develops the method for construction of families of particular solutions to some classes of nonlinear Partial Differential Equations (PDE). Method is based on the specific link between algebraic matrix equations and PDE.…

Exactly Solvable and Integrable Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 A. I. Zenchuk

Learning underlying dynamics from data is important and challenging in many real-world scenarios. Incorporating differential equations (DEs) to design continuous networks has drawn much attention recently, however, most prior works make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Yesom Park , Jaemoo Choi , Changyeon Yoon , Chang hoon Song , Myungjoo Kang

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Santiago Badia , Jerrad Hampton , Javier Principe

The multiscale complexity of modern problems in computational science and engineering can prohibit the use of traditional numerical methods in multi-dimensional simulations. Therefore, novel algorithms are required in these situations to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-06-15 Cale Harnish , Luke Dalessandro , Karel Matous , Daniel Livescu

In this work, we introduce a generalized framework for multiscale state-space modeling that incorporates nested nonlinear dynamics, with a specific focus on Bayesian learning under switching regimes. Our framework captures the complex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Nayely Vélez-Cruz , Manfred D. Laubichler

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Christos Merkatas , Simo Särkkä