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Evolving feature densities across batches of training data bias cross-validation, making model selection and assessment unreliable (\cite{sugiyama2012machine}). This work takes a distributed density estimation angle to the training setting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Behraj Khan , Behroz Mirza , Tahir Syed

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, crucial in applications like recommender systems and online advertising, involves ranking items based on the likelihood of user clicks. User behavior sequence modeling has marked progress in CTR…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Hengyu Zhang , Chang Meng , Wei Guo , Huifeng Guo , Jieming Zhu , Guangpeng Zhao , Ruiming Tang , Xiu Li

In the paper https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2011.08.072 authors propose a modification of the conventional delayed feedback control algorithm, where time-delay is varied continuously to minimize the power of control force. Minimization…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-04-22 Viktor Novičenko

Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is an important task for the companies to recommend products which better match user preferences. User behavior in digital advertising is dynamic and changes over time. It is crucial for the companies to…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Ramazan Tarık Türksoy , Beyza Türkmen , Furkan Durmuş

This paper focuses on the problem of unbounded density ratio estimation -- an understudied yet critical challenge in statistical learning -- and its application to covariate shift adaptation. Much of the existing literature assumes that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-01 Ren-Rui Liu , Jun Fan , Lei Shi , Zheng-Chu Guo

Conversion and conversion rate (CVR) prediction play a critical role in efficient advertising decision-making. In past decades, although researchers have developed plenty of models for CVR prediction, the methodological evolution and…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Tao Xue , Yanwu Yang , Panyu Zhai

Covariate shift relaxes the widely-employed independent and identically distributed (IID) assumption by allowing different training and testing input distributions. Unfortunately, common methods for addressing covariate shift by trying to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-02 Anqi Liu , Brian D. Ziebart

Attention can be used to inform choice selection in contextual bandit tasks even when context features have not been previously experienced. One example of this is in dimensional shifts, where additional feature values are introduced and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Tailia Malloy , Roderick Seow , Cleotilde Gonzalez

Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-16 Yuta Saito , Suguru Yaginuma , Yuta Nishino , Hayato Sakata , Kazuhide Nakata

Predicting click and conversion probabilities when bidding on ad exchanges is at the core of the programmatic advertising industry. Two separated lines of previous works respectively address i) the prediction of user conversion probability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-24 Eustache Diemert , Julien Meynet , Pierre Galland , Damien Lefortier

A significant obstacle in the development of robust machine learning models is covariate shift, a form of distribution shift that occurs when the input distributions of the training and test sets differ while the conditional label…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-17 Nilesh Tripuraneni , Ben Adlam , Jeffrey Pennington

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Mingxuan Luo , Guipeng Xv , Sishuo Chen , Xinyu Li , Li Zhang , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng , Chen Lin

Covariate shift in the test data is a common practical phenomena that can significantly downgrade both the accuracy and the fairness performance of the model. Ensuring fairness across different sensitive groups under covariate shift is of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Shreyas Havaldar , Jatin Chauhan , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Jay Nandy , Aravindan Raghuveer

In the realm of online advertising, accurately predicting the conversion rate (CVR) is crucial for enhancing advertising efficiency and user satisfaction. This paper addresses the challenge of CVR prediction while adhering to user privacy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Kungang Li , Xiangyi Chen , Ling Leng , Jiajing Xu , Jiankai Sun , Behnam Rezaei

Performance estimation under covariate shift is a crucial component of safe AI model deployment, especially for sensitive use-cases. Recently, several solutions were proposed to tackle this problem, most leveraging model predictions or…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Mélanie Roschewitz , Ben Glocker

Current methods for covariate-shift adaptation use unlabelled data to compute importance weights or domain-invariant features, while the final model is trained on labelled data only. Here, we consider a particular case of covariate shift…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-28 Julius von Kügelgen , Alexander Mey , Marco Loog

Accurate post-click conversion rate (CVR) estimation is crucial for online advertising systems. Despite significant advances in causal approaches designed to address the Sample Selection Bias problem, CVR estimation still faces challenges…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Huajian Feng , Guoxiao Zhang , Yadong Zhang , Yi We , Qiang Liu

The prediction objectives of online advertisement ranking models are evolving from probabilistic metrics like conversion rate (CVR) to numerical business metrics like post-click gross merchandise volume (GMV). Unlike the well-studied…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Xinyu Li , Sishuo Chen , Guipeng Xv , Li Zhang , Mingxuan Luo , Zhangming Chan , Xiang-Rong Sheng , Han Zhu , Jian Xu , Chen Lin

Standard methods in preference learning involve estimating the parameters of discrete choice models from data of selections (choices) made by individuals from a discrete set of alternatives (the choice set). While there are many models for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Kiran Tomlinson , Johan Ugander , Austin R. Benson

Human feedback has become the de facto standard for evaluating the performance of Large Language Models, and is increasingly being used as a training objective. However, it is not clear which properties of a generated output this single…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Tom Hosking , Phil Blunsom , Max Bartolo