Related papers: St. Petersburg paradox and failure probability
Strengthening of materials and preventing abrupt fracture are really challenging jobs in the field of engineering and material science. Such problems can be resolved by using composite materials. In this work, we have studied the fracture…
In weakest link models the failure of a single microscopic element of a brittle material causes the failure of an entire macroscopic specimen, just as a chain fails if one link fails. Pristine samples of glass, such as optical…
A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during…
We present a conclusive answer to Bertrand's paradox, a long standing open issue in the basic physical interpretation of probability. The paradox deals with the existence of mutually inconsistent results when looking for the probability…
Mechanical components that are exposed to cyclic mechanical loading fail at loads that are well below the ultimate tensile strength. This process is known as fatigue. The failure time, that is the time when a first crack forms, is highly…
We study fracture processes within a stochastic fiber-bundle model where it is assumed that after the failure of a fiber, each intact fiber obtains a random fraction of the failing load. Within a Markov approximation, the breakdown…
In this paper we consider the extent to which a lack of observations from SETI may be used to quantify the Fermi paradox. Building on previous research, we construct a geometrical model to compute the probability of at least one detection…
The precise mechanisms underlying the failure of multi-phase materials may be strongly dependent on the material's microstructural morphology. Micromechanical modeling has provided much insight into this dependence, but uncertainties remain…
Power lines, roadways, pipelines and other physical infrastructure are critical to modern society. These structures may be viewed as spatial networks where geographic distances play a role in the functionality and construction cost of…
This is an epistemological approach to errors in both inference and risk management, leading to necessary structural properties for the probability distribution. Many mechanisms have been used to show the emergence of fat tails. Here we…
Fractal behavior and long-range dependence have been observed in an astonishing number of physical systems. Either phenomenon has been modeled by self-similar random functions, thereby implying a linear relationship between fractal…
The tensile strength of fused silica fibers is believed to approach its intrinsic value at low temperature, and modern experiments indicate very small, perhaps unmeasured, intrinsic dispersion in this strength. I consider the application of…
The fragility index is a clinically motivated metric designed to supplement the $p$ value during hypothesis testing. The measure relies on two pillars: selecting cases to have their outcome modified and modifying the outcomes. The measure…
In this paper we consider the Fermi's paradox (FP) and propose a possible resolution in the context of super-advanced alien civilizations. In this sense it can be regarded as to be the weak Fermi paradox (WFP). By assuming that…
Rapid progress in additive manufacturing methods has created a new class of ultralight and strong architected metamaterials that resemble periodic truss structures. The mechanical performance of these metamaterials with a very large number…
We consider data-driven reachability analysis of discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems using conformal inference. We assume that we are not provided with a symbolic representation of the stochastic system, but instead have access to a…
A crucial challenge in network theory is the study of the robustness of a network after facing a sequence of failures. In this work, we propose a dynamical definition of network's robustness based on Information Theory, that considers…
We consider a simple system with a local synchronous generator and a load whose power consumption is a random process. The most probable scenario of system failure (synchronization loss) is considered, and it is argued that its knowledge is…
The notion of a successful coupling of Markov processes, based on the idea that both components of the coupled system ``intersect'' in finite time with probability one, is extended to cover situations when the coupling is unnecessarily…
We present a formal measure of argument strength, which combines the ideas that conclusions of strong arguments are (i) highly probable and (ii) their uncertainty is relatively precise. Likewise, arguments are weak when their conclusion…