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Variation in total solar irradiance is thought to have little effect on the Earth's surface temperature because of the thermal time constant--the characteristic response time of the Earth's global surface temperature to changes in forcing.…
Elementary physical reasoning seems to leave it inevitable that global warming would increase the variability of the weather. The first two terms in an approximation to the global entropy are used to show that global warming has increased…
Convective and radiative cooling are the two principle mechanisms by which the Earth's surface transfers heat into the atmosphere and that shape surface temperature. However, this partitioning is not sufficiently constrained by energy and…
Several different factors influence the seasonal cycle of a planet. This study uses a general circulation model and an energy balance model (EBM) to assess the parameters that govern the seasonal cycle. We define two metrics to describe the…
During the last ice age several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events took place. Known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature anomalies.…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
Using an intermediate complexity climate model (Planet Simulator), we investigate the so-called Snowball Earth transition. For certain values of the solar constant, the climate system allows two different stable states: one of them is the…
Many regions across the globe broke their surface temperature records in recent years, further sparking concerns about the impending arrival of "tipping points" later in the 21st century. This study analyzes observed global surface…
Standard results for the fluctuations of thermodynamic quantities are derived under the assumption of sampling identical systems that are in different, not fully equilibrated states. These results apply to fluctuations with time in a…
This paper explores the thermodynamics of fluctuating polytropic processes and their connection to turbulence. It is shown that random fluctuations of polytropic processes produce a nonzero overall heating of a particle system, e.g., solar…
A data-driven model for predicting the surface temperature using neural networks was proposed to alleviate the computational burden of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Our model, named TPTNet uses only 2m temperature measured at the…
In the present paper we consider the fluctuations of the free energy in the random energy model (REM) on a moderate deviation scale. We find that for high temperatures the normal approximation holds only in a narrow range of scalings away…
Fluctuations of energy and heat are investigated during the relaxation following the instantaneous temperature quench of an extended system. Results are obtained analytically for the Gaussian model and for the large $N$ model quenched below…
Herein we show that the historical records of mid-latitude auroras from 1700 to 1966 present oscillations with periods of about 9, 10-11, 20-21, 30 and 60 years. The same frequencies are found in proxy and instrumental global surface…
Changes in the atmospheric composition alter the magnitude and partitioning between the downward propagating solar and atmospheric longwave radiative fluxes heating the Earth's surface. These changes are computed by radiative transfer codes…
What transpires from recent research is that temperatures and radiative forcing seem to be characterized by a linear trend with two changes in the rate of growth. The first occurs in the early 60s and indicates a very large increase in the…
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…
Four sets of global average temperature anomalies, altered so that they refer to pre-industrial temperature levels (baseline), as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are analysed in this study. Expectation values…
Even in the absence of externally applied temperature gradients, spontaneously generated temperature fluctuations arise in turbulent flows. We experimentally study these fluctuations in a closed von Karman swirling flow of air at Mach…