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We consider statistical inference for a class of mixed-effects models with system noise described by a non-Gaussian integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Under the asymptotics where the number of individuals goes to infinity with possibly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Takumi Imamura , Hiroki Masuda

In this paper, we establish general scaling limits for nearly unstable Hawkes processes in a mean-field regime by extending the method introduced by Jaisson and Rosenbaum. Under a mild asymptotic criticality condition on the self-exciting…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-22 Grégoire Szymanski , Wei Xu

The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Behzad Mehrdad , Lingjiong Zhu

Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Xiuyuan Cheng , Tingnan Gong , Yao Xie

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Sacha Quayle , Anna Bonnet , Maxime Sangnier

In this paper, we study the linear transformation model in the most general setup. This model includes many important and popular models in statistics and econometrics as special cases. Although it has been studied for many years, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-26 Tao Yu , Pengfei Li , Baojiang Chen , Ao Yuan , Jing Qin

The literature on Bayesian methods for the analysis of discrete-time semi-Markov processes is sparse. In this paper, we introduce the semi-Markov beta-Stacy process, a stochastic process useful for the Bayesian non-parametric analysis of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-24 Andrea Arfè , Stefano Peluso , Pietro Muliere

In this work, several convergence results are established for nearly critical self-excited systems in which event arrivals are described by multivariate marked Hawkes point processes. Under some mild high-frequency assumptions, the rescaled…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-31 Wei Xu

The quasi likelihood analysis is generalized to the partial quasi likelihood analysis. Limit theorems for the quasi likelihood estimators, especially the quasi Bayesian estimator, are derived in the situation where existence of a slow…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-03 Nakahiro Yoshida

An algorithm is proposed for constructing quasi-random "peaked" quantum circuits, i.e., circuits whose final qubit state exhibits a high probability concentration on a specific computational basis state. These circuits consist of random…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-12 O. G. Udalov

This paper provides and extends second-order versions of several fundamental theorems on first-order regularly varying functions such as Karamata's theorem/representation and Tauberian's theorem. Our results are used to establish…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Ulrich Horst , Wei Xu

The first aim of the present note is to quantify the speed of convergence of a conditioned process toward its Q-process under suitable assumptions on the quasi-stationary distribution of the process. Conversely, we prove that, if a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-10 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing clustered or repeated measures data. We propose a quasi-likelihood approach for estimation and inference of the unknown parameters in linear mixed-effects models with high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-10 Sai Li , Tony T. Cai , Hongzhe Li

We propose a novel modeling framework for time-evolving networks allowing for long-term dependence in network features that update in continuous time. Dynamic network growth is functionally parameterized via the conditional intensity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-20 Duncan A Clark , Conor J. Kresin , Charlotte M. Jones-Todd

Gaussian process hyperparameter optimization requires linear solves with, and log-determinants of, large kernel matrices. Iterative numerical techniques are becoming popular to scale to larger datasets, relying on the conjugate gradient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Jonathan Wenger , Geoff Pleiss , Philipp Hennig , John P. Cunningham , Jacob R. Gardner

The kernel function and its hyperparameters are the central model selection choice in a Gaussian proces (Rasmussen and Williams, 2006). Typically, the hyperparameters of the kernel are chosen by maximising the marginal likelihood, an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-07 Vidhi Lalchand , Wessel P. Bruinsma , David R. Burt , Carl E. Rasmussen

We propose a simulation method for multidimensional Hawkes processes based on superposition theory of point processes. This formulation allows us to design efficient simulations for Hawkes processes with differing exponentially decaying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-14 Kar Wai Lim , Young Lee , Leif Hanlen , Hongbiao Zhao

In this paper we consider point processes specified on directed linear networks, i.e. linear networks with associated directions. We adapt the so-called conditional intensity function used for specifying point processes on the time line to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Jakob G. Rasmussen , Heidi S. Christensen

In this paper, we consider a class of inhomogeneous semi-Markov processes directly based on intensity processes for marked point processes. We show that this class satisfies the semi-Markov properties defined elsewhere in the literature. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-14 Alexander Sokol

We introduce a family of local inhomogeneous mark-weighted summary statistics, of order two and higher, for general marked point processes. Depending on how the involved weight function is specified, these summary statistics capture…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-13 Nicoletta D'Angelo , Giada Adelfio , Jorge Mateu , Ottmar Cronie