Related papers: Asymptotics of Cross-Validation
This paper develops an asymptotic theory for two-step debiased machine learning (DML) estimators in generalised method of moments (GMM) models with general multiway clustered dependence, without relying on cross-fitting. While cross-fitting…
We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…
Conformal risk control (CRC) is a recently proposed technique that applies post-hoc to a conventional point predictor to provide calibration guarantees. Generalizing conformal prediction (CP), with CRC, calibration is ensured for a set…
Tuning parameters in supervised learning problems are often estimated by cross-validation. The minimum value of the cross-validation error can be biased downward as an estimate of the test error at that same value of the tuning parameter.…
If multiway cluster-robust standard errors are used routinely in applied economics, surprisingly few theoretical results justify this practice. This paper aims to fill this gap. We first prove, under nearly the same conditions as with…
Consider the {$\ell_{\alpha}$} regularized linear regression, also termed Bridge regression. For $\alpha\in (0,1)$, Bridge regression enjoys several statistical properties of interest such as sparsity and near-unbiasedness of the estimates…
For a multivariate random walk with i.i.d. jumps satisfying the Cramer moment condition and having a mean vector with at least one negative component, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of ever hitting the positive orthant…
We demonstrate the consistency of cross validation for comparing multiple density estimators using simple inequalities on the likelihood ratio. In nonparametric problems, the splitting of data does not require the domination of test data…
We consider tests of hypotheses when the parameters are not identifiable under the null in semiparametric models, where regularity conditions for profile likelihood theory fail. Exponential average tests based on integrated profile…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of sequences of multivariate random variables representing the number of occurrences of a given set of symbols in a word of length $n$ generated at random according to a rational stochastic model. Assuming…
The lasso and related sparsity inducing algorithms have been the target of substantial theoretical and applied research. Correspondingly, many results are known about their behavior for a fixed or optimally chosen tuning parameter specified…
The asymptotic behaviour of a closed BCMP network, with $n$ queues and $m_n$ clients, is analyzed when $n$ and $m_n$ become simultaneously large. Our method relies on Berry-Esseen type approximations coming in the Central Limit Theorem. We…
Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence…
Recently, there has been substantial interest in statistical guarantees for cross-validation (CV) methods of uncertainty quantification in statistical learning (cf. Barber et al. 2021a, Liang and Barber 2024, Steinberger and Leeb 2023).…
Despite ongoing theoretical research on cross-validation (CV), many theoretical questions remain widely open. This motivates our investigation into how properties of algorithm-distribution pairs can affect the choice for the number of folds…
In this paper, we introduce a new concept of stability for cross-validation, called the $\left( \beta, \varpi \right)$-stability, and use it as a new perspective to build the general theory for cross-validation. The $\left( \beta, \varpi…
Model averaging is an important alternative to model selection with attractive prediction accuracy. However, its application to high-dimensional data remains under-explored. We propose a high-dimensional model averaging method via…
Despite the extensive literature on training loss functions, the evaluation of generalization on the validation set remains underexplored. In this work, we conduct a systematic empirical and statistical study of how the validation criterion…
Well-known for its simplicity and effectiveness in classification, AdaBoost, however, suffers from overfitting when class-conditional distributions have significant overlap. Moreover, it is very sensitive to noise that appears in the…
Asymptotic theory for M-estimation problems usually focuses on the asymptotic convergence of the sample descriptor, defined as the minimizer of the sample loss function. Here, we explore a related question and formulate asymptotic theory…