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The advent of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has heralded an inflection point that changed how society thinks about knowledge acquisition. While GAI cannot be fully trusted for decision-making, it may still provide valuable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Ročková

Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at…

The Fleming-Viot process describes a system of $N$ particles diffusing on a graph with an absorbing site. Whenever one of the particles is absorbed, it is replaced by a new particle at the position of one of the $N-1$ remaining particles.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-23 Éric Brunet , Bernard Derrida

The two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion takes values in the infinite ordered simplex and extends the celebrated infinitely-many-neutral-alleles model, having a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet stationary distribution. Here we identify…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-16 Robert C. Griffiths , Matteo Ruggiero , Dario Spanò , Youzhou Zhou

Fleming-Viot diffusions are widely used stochastic models for population dynamics which extend the celebrated Wright-Fisher diffusions. They describe the temporal evolution of the relative frequencies of the allelic types in an ideally…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Filippo Ascolani , Stefano Damato , Matteo Ruggiero

We introduce diffusions on a space of interval partitions of the unit interval that are stationary with the Poisson-Dirichlet laws with parameters $(\alpha,0)$ and $(\alpha,\alpha)$. The construction has two steps. The first is a general…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-18 Noah Forman , Soumik Pal , Douglas Rizzolo , Matthias Winkel

We develop a Bayesian inference method for diffusions observed discretely and with noise, which is free of discretisation bias. Unlike existing unbiased inference methods, our method does not rely on exact simulation techniques. Instead,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-10 Neil K. Chada , Jordan Franks , Ajay Jasra , Kody J. H. Law , Matti Vihola

In this paper, we provide an explicit probability distribution for classification purposes. It is derived from the Bayesian nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet process model, but with suitable modifications which remove unsuitable aspects of…

Applications · Statistics 2009-05-05 Ruth Fuentes-Garcia , Ramses H Mena , Stephen G Walker

Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Andrea Montanari , Yuchen Wu

Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) models have been increasingly employed to specify random partition models that take into account possible patterns within the covariates. Furthermore, to deal with large numbers of covariates, methods for…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-01 William Barcella , Maria De Iorio , Gianluca Baio

We consider an array of random variables, taking values in a complete and separable metric space, that exhibits a kind of symmetry which we call row exchangeability. Given such an array, a natural model for Bayesian nonparametric inference…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-10 Evan Donald , Jason Swanson

A new class of time-dependent Dirichlet priors is introduced as a generalisation of the Wright-Fisher diffusion, allowing discontinuities in the trajectories, as well as non-Markovian memory. This class is obtained as a simple stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Nathan A. Judd , Dario Spanò

In this article, we develop a new class of multivariate distributions adapted for count data, called Tree P\'olya Splitting. This class results from the combination of a univariate distribution and singular multivariate distributions along…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Samuel Valiquette , Jean Peyhardi , Éric Marchand , Gwladys Toulemonde , Frédéric Mortier

Dirichlet processes and their extensions have reached a great popularity in Bayesian nonparametric statistics. They have also been introduced for spatial and spatio-temporal data, as a tool to analyze and predict surfaces. A popular…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-31 Clara Grazian

Dirichlet Process Mixtures (DPMs) are a popular class of statistical models to perform density estimation and clustering. However, when the data available have a distribution evolving over time, such models are inadequate. We introduce here…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-26 Francois Caron , Manuel Davy , Arnaud Doucet

Many scientific and industrial processes produce data that is best analysed as vectors of relative values, often called compositions or proportions. The Dirichlet distribution is a natural distribution to use for composition or proportion…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-15 Sean van der Merwe

The analysis of rank ordered data has a long history in the statistical literature across a diverse range of applications. In this paper we consider the Extended Plackett-Luce model that induces a flexible (discrete) distribution over…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-17 Stephen R. Johnson , Daniel A. Henderson , Richard J. Boys

We introduce a class of probability measure-valued diffusions, coined polynomial, of which the well-known Fleming--Viot process is a particular example. The defining property of finite dimensional polynomial processes considered by Cuchiero…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-07-10 Christa Cuchiero , Martin Larsson , Sara Svaluto-Ferro

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Joe Watson , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

We propose diffusion-like equations with time and space fractional derivatives of the distributed order for the kinetic description of anomalous diffusion and relaxation phenomena, whose diffusion exponent varies with time and which,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 A. V. Chechkin , R. Gorenflo , I. M. Sokolov