Related papers: Human mortality at extreme age
Lifespan distributions of populations of quite diverse species such as humans and yeast seem to surprisingly well follow the same empirical Gompertz-Makeham law, which basically predicts an exponential increase of mortality rate with age.…
COVID-19 related deaths underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares observed with expected deaths based on the…
All-cause mortality is a very coarse grain, albeit very reliable, index to check the health implications of lifestyle determinants, systemic threats and socio-demographic factors. In this work we adopt a statistical-mechanics approach to…
We study supercritical age-structured branching models starting from a single particle with a random lifetime, where the reproduction law depends on the remaining lifetime of the parent. The lifespan of an individual is decided at its birth…
In this work we deal with correlated failure time (age at onset) data arising from population-based case-control studies, where case and control probands are selected by population-based sampling and an array of risk factor measures is…
We investigate the salience of extinction risk as a source of impatience. Our framework distinguishes between human extinction risk and individual mortality risk while allowing for various degrees of intergenerational altruism.…
The aim of this paper is to study the long-term consequence on longevity of a mortality shock. We adopt an historical and modeling approach to study how the population evolution following a mortality shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic…
Ever since the studies of Louis-Adolphe Bertillon in the late 19th century it has been known that marital status and number of children markedly affect death and suicide rates. This led in 1898 Emile Durkheim to conjecture a connection…
This paper addresses the theoretical conditions necessary for some subject of study to survive forever. A probabilistic analysis leads to some prerequisite conditions for preserving, say, electronic data indefinitely into the future. The…
We consider a stochastic model for an evolving population. We show that in the presence of genotype extinctions the population dies out for a low mutation probability but may survive for a high mutation probability. This turns upside down…
The world population is projected to rapidly age over the next 30 years. Given the increasing digital technology adoption amongst older adults, researchers have investigated how technology can support aging populations. However, little work…
We present, solve and numerically simulate a simple model that describes the consequences of increased longevity on fertility rates, population growth and the distribution of wealth in developed societies. We look at the consequences of the…
The Wasserstein distance is a metric for assessing distributional differences. The measure originates in optimal transport theory and can be interpreted as the minimal cost of transforming one distribution into another. In this paper, the…
BACKGROUND Indicators of relative inequality of lifespans are important because they capture the dimensionless shape of aging. They are markers of inequality at the population level and express the uncertainty at the time of death at the…
In recent years, improvements in all-cause mortality rates and life expectancies for males and females in England and Wales have slowed down. In this paper, cause-specific mortality data for England and Wales from 2001 to 2018 are used to…
Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…
The mathematical essence in life insurance spins around the search of the nu\-me\-ri\-cal characteristics of the random variables $T_x$, $\nu^{T_x}$, $T_x\nu^{T_x}$, etc., where $\nu$ (deterministic) denotes the discount multiplier and…
In many developed countries, human life expectancy has doubled over the last 180 years from ~40 to ~80 years. Underlying this great advance is a change in how we age, yet our understanding of this change remains limited. Here we present a…
In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…
Applying a modification of Extreme value Theory (thanks to a dual distribution technique by the authors on data over the past 2,500 years, we show that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities, with a marked potentially…