Related papers: Human mortality at extreme age
The number of people able to end Earth's technical civilization has heretofore been small. Emerging dual-use technologies, such as biotechnology, may give similar power to thousands or millions of individuals. To quantitatively investigate…
After birth setting up an effective immune system is a major challenge for all living organisms. In this paper we show that this process can be explored by using the age-specific infant death rate as a kind of sensor. This is made possible…
Assuming the deleterious mutations in the Penna ageing model to affect mainly the young ages, we get an enhanced mortality at very young age, followed by a minimum of the mortality, and then the usual exponential increase of mortality with…
Studies that predict species extinction have focused on a range of flora and fauna but in regard to Homo sapiens there are, with one notable exception, no predictive studies, only considerations of possible ways this may occur. The…
We model an epidemic where the per-person infectiousness in a network of geographic localities changes with the total number of active cases. This would happen as people adopt more stringent non-pharmaceutical precautions when the…
Dementia currently affects about 50 million people worldwide, and this number is rising. Since there is still no cure, the primary focus remains on preventing modifiable risk factors such as cardiovascular factors. It is now recognized that…
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis,…
Data on hundreds of variables related to individual consumer finance behavior (such as credit card and loan activity) is routinely collected in many countries and plays an important role in lending decisions. We postulate that the detailed…
We propose a method to quantify uncertainty around individual survival distribution estimates using right-censored data, compatible with any survival model. Unlike classical confidence intervals, the survival bands produced by this method…
Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a…
BACKGROUND. The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one third of all countries require mortality models to infer complete age schedules of mortality, required for population estimates, projections/forecasts and many other tasks in…
This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…
We conducted a prospective analysis of incident dementia and its association with 65 sociodemographic, early-life, economic, health and behavioral, social, and genetic risk factors in a sample of 7,908 adults over the age of 50 from the…
Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a…
Identifying frail older adults in an ageing population is essential for improving healthcare services. This study proposes a composite indicator to assess individual frailty levels using administrative healthcare data. Given the complex and…
Population extinction is a rare event which requires overcoming an effective barrier. We show that the extinction rate can be fragile: a small change in the system parameters leads to an exponentially strong change of the rate, with the…
We extend the setting of the right endpoint estimator introduced in Fraga Alves and Neves (Statist. Sinica 24:1811--1835, 2014) to the broader class of light-tailed distributions with finite endpoint, belonging to some domain of attraction…
This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…
Aging is a universal consequence of life, yet researchers have identified no universal theme. This manuscript considers aging from the perspective of entropy, wherein things fall apart. We first examine biological information change as a…
Comorbidity networks, which capture disease-disease co-occurrence usually based on electronic health records, reveal structured patterns in how diseases cluster and progress across individuals. However, how these networks evolve across…