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Chirp signals are frequently used in different areas of science and engineering. MCMC based Bayesian inference is done here for purpose of one step and multiple step prediction in case of one dimensional single chirp signal with i.\ i.\ d.\…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-03 Satyaki Mazumder

Measurement of the global 21-cm signal during Cosmic Dawn (CD) and the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) is made difficult by bright foreground emission which is 2-5 orders of magnitude larger than the expected signal. Fitting for a…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-20 Michael Pagano , Peter Sims , Adrian Liu , Dominic Anstey , Will Handley , Eloy De Lera Acedo

The EoR 21-cm signal is expected to become highly non-Gaussian as reionization progresses. This severely affects the error-covariance of the EoR 21-cm power spectrum which is important for predicting the prospects of a detection with…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2016-11-14 Rajesh Mondal , Somnath Bharadwaj , Suman Majumdar

We develop a computational framework to quantify uncertainty in shear elastography imaging of anomalies in tissues. We adopt a Bayesian inference formulation. Given the observed data, a forward model and their uncertainties, we find the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-07 Ana Carpio , Elena Cebrian , Andrea Gutierrez

All 21-cm signal experiments rely on electronic receivers that affect the data via both multiplicative and additive biases through the receiver's gain and noise temperature. While experiments attempt to remove these biases, the residuals of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-07-14 Keith Tauscher , David Rapetti , Bang D. Nhan , Alec Handy , Neil Bassett , Joshua Hibbard , David Bordenave , Richard F. Bradley , Jack O. Burns

Cosmic Dawn (CD) and Epoch of Reionization (EoR) are epochs of the Universe which host invaluable information about the cosmology and astrophysics of X-ray heating and hydrogen reionization. Radio interferometric observations of the 21-cm…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-10 Anchal Saxena , Alex Cole , Simon Gazagnes , P. Daniel Meerburg , Christoph Weniger , Samuel J. Witte

As observations of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) in redshifted 21cm emission begin, we asses the accuracy of the early catalog results from the Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER) and the Murchison Widefield…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-15 Daniel Jacobs , Judd Bowman , James Aguirre

Ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are widely used to describe systems in many areas of science. To ensure these models provide accurate and interpretable representations of real-world dynamics, it is often necessary to infer…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Selva Salimi , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Ke Zhao , Ajay Jasra

Detecting a signal from the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) requires an exquisite understanding of galactic and extra-galactic foregrounds, low frequency radio instruments, instrumental calibration, and data analysis pipelines. In this work we…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-02-27 Ronniy C. Joseph , C. M. Trott , R. B. Wayth , A. Nasirudin

Detection and analysis of the cosmic 21 cm signal of neutral hydrogen has long been considered the most promising route towards exploration of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). 21CMMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler of the semi-numerical…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-19 August Berklas , Jonathan Pober

Implicit sampling is a weighted sampling method that is used in data assimilation, where one sequentially updates estimates of the state of a stochastic model based on a stream of noisy or incomplete data. Here we describe how to use…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-01-20 Matthias Morzfeld , Xuemin Tu , Jon Wilkening , Alexandre J. Chorin

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-24 Richard A. Norton , J. Andres Christen , Colin Fox

Structure imprinted in foreground extragalactic point sources by ionospheric refraction has the potential to contaminate Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) power spectra of the 21~cm emission line of neutral hydrogen. The alteration of the spatial…

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Carlo Albert , Simone Ulzega , Ruedi Stoop

We perform a Fisher analysis to estimate the expected constraints on the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) model parameters (i.e., minimum virial temperature, the ionizing efficiency and the mean free path of ionizing photons) taking into account…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-04-04 Hayato Shimabukuro , Shintaro Yoshiura , Keitaro Takahashi , Shuichiro Yokoyama , Kiyotomo Ichiki

Empirical Bayes inference is based on estimation of the parameters of an a priori distribution from the observed data. The estimation technique of the parameters of the prior, called hyperparameters, is based on the marginal distribution…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-06 Timofei Leahu , Giorgio Picci

Constraining the timescale and manner in which the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) occurred is a major JWST science goal. However, any constraints on the stellar or ionizing parameters (xi ion) of galaxies in the EoR must contend with biases…

Towards understanding the fundamental limits of estimation from data of varied quality, we study the problem of estimating a mean parameter from heteroskedastic Gaussian observations where the variances are unknown and may vary arbitrarily…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-17 Yanjun Han , Abhishek Shetty , Jacob Shkrob