Related papers: Studying Rare Events using Forward-Flux Sampling: …

Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…

Extreme events are unusual and rare large-amplitude fluctuations that occur can unexpectedly in nonlinear dynamical systems. Events above the extreme event threshold of the probability distribution of a nonlinear process characterize…

Detecting rare events, those defined to give rise to high impact but have a low probability of occurring, is a challenge in a number of domains including meteorological, environmental, financial and economic. The use of machine learning to…

A rare event is defined by a low probability of occurrence. Accurate estimation of such small probabilities is of utmost importance across diverse domains. Conventional Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, demanding an exorbitant number of…

Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…

We propose a physics-constrained machine learning method-based on reservoir computing- to time-accurately predict extreme events and long-term velocity statistics in a model of turbulent shear flow. The method leverages the strengths of two…

We study the time until first occurrence, the first-passage time, of rare density fluctuations in diffusive systems. We approach the problem using a model consisting of many independent random walkers on a lattice. The existence of spatial…

Soft particulate media include a wide range of systems involving athermal dissipative particles both in non-living and biological materials. Characterization of flows of particulate media is of great practical and theoretical importance. A…

In this paper we use splitting technique to estimate the probability of hitting a rare but critical set by the continuous component of a switching diffusion. Instead of following classical approach we use Wonham filter to achieve multiple…

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

Extreme events are by nature rare and difficult to predict, yet are often much more important than frequent, typical events. An interesting counterpoint to the prediction of such events is their retrodiction -- given a process in an outlier…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

The Sun is observed in unprecedented detail, enabling studies of its activity on very small spatiotemporal scales. However, the large volume of data collected by our telescopes cannot be fully analyzed with conventional methods. Popular…

In this PhD thesis, I investigate the properties of symmetry-breaking dynamical phase transitions that manifest in the fluctuations of time-integrated observables within classical systems. In particular, I analyze how these phase…

An automated, rapid classification of transient events detected in the modern synoptic sky surveys is essential for their scientific utility and effective follow-up using scarce resources. This presents some unusual challenges: the data are…

The problem of studying rare events is central to many areas of computer simulations. In a recent paper [Kang, P., et al., Nat. Comput. Sci. 4, 451-460, 2024], we have shown that a powerful way of solving this problem passes through the…

Noise-induced phase transitions are common in various complex systems, from physics to biology. In this article, we investigate the emergence of crucial events in noise-induced phase transition processes and their potential significance for…

The prediction and control of rare events is an important task in disciplines that range from physics and biology, to economics and social science. The Big Jump principle deals with a peculiar aspect of the mechanism that drives rare…

We perform a numeric study of the flux transitions in a superconducting ring at fixed temperature, while the applied field is swept at an ideally slow rate. The current around the ring and its free energy are evaluated. We partially explain…