Related papers: Studying Rare Events using Forward-Flux Sampling: …

A common problem that affects simulations of complex systems within the computational physics and chemistry communities is the so-called sampling problem or rare event problem where proper sampling of energy landscapes is impeded by the…

We use importance sampling in a redefined way to highlight and investigate rare events in the form of trajectories trapped inside a target coherent set. We take a transfer operator approach to finding these sets on a reconstructed…

The fluctuations of turbulence intensity in a pipe flow around the critical Reynolds number is difficult to study but important because they are related to turbulent-laminar transitions. We here propose a rare-event sampling method to study…

Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on…

Langevin equations are used to model many processes of physical interest, including low-energy nuclear collisions. In this paper we develop a general method for computing probabilities of very rare events (e.g. small fusion cross-sections)…

We study the problem of predicting rare critical transition events for a class of slow-fast nonlinear dynamical systems. The state of the system of interest is described by a slow process, whereas a faster process drives its evolution and…

We study rare events in systems of diffusive fields driven out of equilibrium by the boundaries. We present a numerical technique and use it to calculate the probabilities of rare events in one and two dimensions. Using this technique, we…

Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…

Transition path sampling is a method for estimating the rates of rare events in molecular systems based on the gradual transformation of a path distribution containing a small fraction of reactive trajectories into a biased distribution in…

Active matter represents a broad class of systems that evolve far from equilibrium due to the local injection of energy. Like their passive analogues, transformations between distinct metastable states in active matter proceed through rare…

The rare-event sampling problem has long been the central limiting factor in molecular dynamics (MD), especially in biomolecular simulation. Recently, diffusion models such as BioEmu have emerged as powerful equilibrium samplers that…

Deep neural networks, when optimized with sufficient data, provide accurate representations of high-dimensional functions; in contrast, function approximation techniques that have predominated in scientific computing do not scale well with…

Path sampling approaches have become invaluable tools to explore the mechanisms and dynamics of so-called rare events that are characterized by transitions between metastable states separated by sizeable free energy barriers. Their…

A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more…

The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…

Rare event prediction involves identifying and forecasting events with a low probability using machine learning (ML) and data analysis. Due to the imbalanced data distributions, where the frequency of common events vastly outweighs that of…

We introduce a novel enhanced sampling approach named OPES flooding for calculating the kinetics of rare events from atomistic molecular dynamics simulation. This method is derived from the On-the-fly-Probability-Enhanced-Sampling (OPES)…

Rare events such as nucleation processes are of ubiquitous importance in real systems. The most popular method for nonequilibrium systems, forward flux sampling (FFS), samples rare events by using interfaces to partition the whole…

This work studies the effectiveness of several machine learning techniques for predicting extreme events occurring in the flow around an airfoil at low Reynolds. For certain Reynolds numbers the aerodynamic forces exhibit intermittent…

We study rare-event simulation for a class of problems where the target hitting sets of interest are defined via modern machine learning tools such as neural networks and random forests. This problem is motivated from fast emerging studies…