Related papers: Quantifying the Trendiness of Trends
The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a…
In this article, we discuss various implementation of L1 filtering in order to detect some properties of noisy signals. This filter consists of using a L1 penalty condition in order to obtain the filtered signal composed by a set of…
Attempts to control the epidemic spread of COVID19 in the different countries often involve imposing restrictions to the mobility of citizens. Recent examples demonstrate that the effectiveness of these policies strongly depends on the…
Common statistical measures of uncertainty such as $p$-values and confidence intervals quantify the uncertainty due to sampling, that is, the uncertainty due to not observing the full population. However, sampling is not the only source of…
Spurious association arises from covariance between propensity for the treatment and individual risk for the outcome. For sensitivity analysis with stochastic counterfactuals we introduce a methodology to characterize uncertainty in causal…
An information theoretic measure is derived that quantifies the statistical coherence between systems evolving in time. The standard time delayed mutual information fails to distinguish information that is actually exchanged from shared…
The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…
Human behavior is notoriously difficult to change, but a disruption of the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to bring about long-term behavioral changes. During the pandemic, people have been forced to experience new ways…
There is a lack of quantitative measures to evaluate the progression of topics through time in dynamic topic models (DTMs). Filling this gap, we propose a novel evaluation measure for DTMs that analyzes the changes in the quality of each…
High-dimensional multivariate longitudinal data, which arise when many outcome variables are measured repeatedly over time, are becoming increasingly common in social, behavioral and health sciences. We propose a latent variable model for…
A general model for opinion formation and competition, like in ideological struggles is formulated. The underlying set is a closed one, like a country but in which the population size is variable in time. Several ideologies compete to…
The massive amount of text data on the web has facilitated research on the quantitative analysis of public opinion, which could not be visualized earlier. In this paper, we propose a new opinion dynamics theory. This theory that is intended…
Passive and non-obtrusive health monitoring using wearables can potentially bring new insights into the user's health status throughout the day and may support clinical diagnosis and treatment. However, identifying segments of free-living…
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…
The proliferation of news media available online simultaneously presents a valuable resource and significant challenge to analysts aiming to profile and understand social and cultural trends in a geographic location of interest. While an…
An active line of research has studied the detection and representation of trends in social media content. There is still relatively little understanding, however, of methods to characterize the early adopters of these trends: who picks up…
In this paper we derive inferential results for a new index of inequality, specifically defined for capturing significant changes observed both in the left and in the right tail of the income distributions. The latter shifts are an apparent…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, commonly referred to as COVID-19, triggered the global pandemic. Although the nature of the international spread of infection is an important issue, extracting diffusion networks from observations is…
Changes in the number of publications in a certain field might reflect the dynamic of scientific progress in this field, since an increase in the number of publications can be interpreted as an increase in the field-specific knowledge. In…