Related papers: Quantifying the Trendiness of Trends
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
Classical assessments of trends in gridded temperature data perform independent evaluations across the grid, thus, ignoring spatial correlations in the trend estimates. In particular, this affects assessments of trend significance as…
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…
Trending topics are often the result of the spreading of information between users of social networks. These special topics can be regarded as rumors. The spreading of a rumor is often studied with the same techniques as in epidemics…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…
Social dialogue, the foundation of our democracies, is currently threatened by disinformation and partisanship, with their disrupting role on individual and collective awareness and detrimental effects on decision-making processes. Despite…
In economic applications, model averaging has found principal use examining the validity of various theories related to observed heterogeneity in outcomes such as growth, development, and trade.Though often easy to articulate, these…
Predicting the popularity of online content has attracted much attention in the past few years. In news rooms, for instance, journalists and editors are keen to know, as soon as possible, the articles that will bring the most traffic into…
We study quantile trend filtering, a recently proposed method for nonparametric quantile regression with the goal of generalizing existing risk bounds known for the usual trend filtering estimators which perform mean regression. We study…
Measles is considered as a highly contagious disease that leads to serious complications around the world. Thus, the paper determined the trend and the five-year forecasted data of the Measles in the Philippines. This study utilized the…
Public sentiment (the opinions, attitudes or feelings expressed by the public) is a factor of interest for government, as it directly influences the implementation of policies. Given the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 crisis, having…
A single social phenomenon (such as crime, unemployment or birth rate) can be observed through temporal series corresponding to units at different levels (cities, regions, countries...). Units at a given local level may follow a collective…
Measuring inequalities in a multidimensional framework is a challenging problem which is common to most field of science and engineering. Nevertheless, despite the enormous amount of researches illustrating the fields of application of…
We develop a fully Bayesian hierarchical model for trend filtering, itself a new development in nonparametric, univariate regression. The framework more broadly applies to the generalized lasso, but focus is on Bayesian trend filtering. We…
Difference-in-differences (DiD) is the most popular observational causal inference method in health policy, employed to evaluate the real-world impact of policies and programs. To estimate treatment effects, DiD relies on the "parallel…
The temporal changes in complex systems of interactions have excited the research community in recent years as they encompass understandings on their dynamics and evolution. From the collective dynamics of organizations and online…
We propose a novel model-based clustering approach for samples of time series. We assume as a unique commonality that two observations belong to the same group if structural changes in their behaviours happen at the same time. We resort to…
The Mann-Kendall test for trend has gained a lot of attention in a range of disciplines, especially in the environmental sciences. One of the drawbacks of the Mann-Kendall test when applied to real data is that no distinction can be made…
Forecasting the future course of epidemics has always been one of the main goals of epidemic modelling. This chapter reviews statistical methods to quantify the accuracy of epidemic forecasts. We distinguish point and probabilistic…
We propose a general methodology to measure labour market dynamics, inspired by the search and matching framework, based on the estimate of the transition rates between labour market states. We show how to estimate instantaneous transition…