Related papers: The Arctic surface climate in CMIP6: status and de…
Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in regulating Earth's climate system, significantly influencing polar ecological stability and human activities in coastal regions. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have facilitated the…
We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR…
We quantify changes DeltaQ in 100-year return values for regional annual maxima and minima of near-surface atmospheric temperature from output of five CMIP6 models, for five of the Earth's desert regions, over the interval (2025,2125). We…
The growing concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O (GHG) in the atmosphere are often considered as the dominant cause for the global warming during the past decades. The reported temperature data however do not display a…
Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is not only difficult to explain but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence that the…
Forecasting sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice velocity (SIV) in the Arctic Ocean is of great significance as the Arctic environment has been changed by the recent warming climate. Given that physical sea ice models require high…
Sea ice plays a crucial role in the climate system, particularly in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ), a transitional area consisting of fragmented ice between the open ocean and consolidated pack ice. As the MIZ expands, understanding its…
The warming of the Arctic, also known as Arctic amplification, is led by several atmospheric and oceanic drivers. However, the details of its underlying thermodynamic causes are still unknown. Inferring the causal effects of atmospheric…
We present measurements of the intergalactic medium (IGM) temperature within ~5 proper Mpc of seven luminous quasars at z~6. The constraints are obtained from the Doppler widths of Lyman-alpha absorption lines in the quasar near-zones and…
The early Earth's environment is controversial. Climatic estimates range from hot to glacial, and inferred marine pH spans strongly alkaline to acidic. Better understanding of early climate and ocean chemistry would improve our knowledge of…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel…
Climate change is progressing asynchronously between the Arctic and Antarctic, with important implications for global climate dynamics. While the Arctic has experienced rapid warming and pronounced amplification, the Antarctic has exhibited…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
Predicting Arctic sea ice extent is a notoriously difficult forecasting problem, even for lead times as short as one month. Motivated by Arctic intraannual variability phenomena such as reemergence of sea surface temperature and sea ice…
The results of an analysis of temperature variations in the mesopause region based on long-term measurements of hydroxyl airglow at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS (ZSS IAP RAS) in…
Multi-year-to-decadal climate prediction is a key tool in understanding the range of potential regional and global climate futures. Here, we present a framework that combines machine learning and analog forecasting for predictions on these…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…