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Bayesian inference is used extensively to quantify the uncertainty in an inferred field given the measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a mathematical model. Despite its many applications, Bayesian inference faces…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-31 Dhruv V. Patel , Assad A. Oberai

The construction of objective priors is, at best, challenging for multidimensional parameter spaces. A common practice is to assume independence and set up the joint prior as the product of marginal distributions obtained via "standard"…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-07 Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos , Cristiano Villa , Stephen G. Walker

When inferring parameters from a Gaussian-distributed data set by computing a likelihood, a covariance matrix is needed that describes the data errors and their correlations. If the covariance matrix is not known a priori, it may be…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2016-01-27 Elena Sellentin , Alan F. Heavens

Motivated by the analysis of the distribution of university grades, which is usually asymmetric, we discuss two informative priors for the shape parameter of the skew-normal distribution, showing that they lead to closed-form…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-15 Antonio Canale , Bruno Scarpa

Logistic regression models for binomial responses are routinely used in statistical practice. However, the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist due to data separability. We address this issue by considering a conjugate prior penalty…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Tommaso Rigon , Emanuele Aliverti

This paper explores Bayesian inference for a biased sampling model in situations where the population of interest cannot be sampled directly, but rather through an indirect and inherently biased method. Observations are viewed as being the…

Applications · Statistics 2007-11-26 Russell Zaretzki , Michael A. Gilchrist , William M. Briggs , Artin Armagan

Bayesian low-rank matrix factorization techniques have become an essential tool for relational data analysis and matrix completion. A standard approach is to assign zero-mean Gaussian priors on the columns or rows of factor matrices to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-11 Saibal De , Hadi Salehi , Alex Gorodetsky

A central characteristic of Bayesian statistics is the ability to consistently incorporate prior knowledge into various modeling processes. In this paper, we focus on translating domain expert knowledge into corresponding prior…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-16 Florence Bockting , Stefan T. Radev , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Hierarchical modeling is wonderful and here to stay, but hyperparameter priors are often chosen in a casual fashion. Unfortunately, as the number of hyperparameters grows, the effects of casual choices can multiply, leading to considerably…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 James O. Berger , William Strawderman , Dejun Tang

Multicategory lattice data arise in a wide variety of disciplines such as image analysis, biology, and forestry. We consider modeling such data with the automultinomial model, which can be viewed as a natural extension of the autologistic…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2026-02-13 Maria Paula Duenas-Herrera , Stephen Berg , Murali Haran

Deterministic compartmental models are predominantly used in the modeling of infectious diseases, though stochastic models are considered more realistic, yet are complicated to estimate due to missing data. In this paper we present a novel…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-22 Shuying Wang , Stephen G. Walker

This paper considers the topic of finding prior distributions when a major component of the statistical model depends on a nonlinear function. Using results on how to construct uniform distributions in general metric spaces, we propose a…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-09 Björn Bornkamp

Gibbs sampling methods are standard tools to perform posterior inference for mixture models. These have been broadly classified into two categories: marginal and conditional methods. While conditional samplers are more widely applicable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Pierpaolo De Blasi , María F. Gil-Leyva

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier

Full Bayesian posteriors are rarely analytically tractable, which is why real-world Bayesian inference heavily relies on approximate techniques. Approximations generally differ from the true posterior and require diagnostic tools to assess…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-08 Luca Rendsburg , Agustinus Kristiadi , Philipp Hennig , Ulrike von Luxburg

We propose an adaptive independent Metropolis--Hastings algorithm with the ability to learn from all previous proposals in the chain except the current location. It is an extension of the independent Metropolis--Hastings algorithm.…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-03-04 Lars Holden , Ragnar Hauge , Marit Holden

Using instruments comprising ordered responses to items are ubiquitous for studying many constructs of interest. However, using such an item response format may lead to items with response categories infrequently endorsed or unendorsed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-02 R. Noah Padgett , Grant B. Morgan , Tim Lomas

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-01-03 Tongzhou Wang , Yi Wu , David A. Moore , Stuart J. Russell

We introduce non-stationary Mat\'ern field priors with stochastic partial differential equations, and construct correlation length-scaling with hyperpriors. We model both the hyperprior and the Mat\'ern prior as continuous-parameter random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-12 Lassi Roininen , Mark Girolami , Sari Lasanen , Markku Markkanen