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I develop Macroeconomic Random Forest (MRF), an algorithm adapting the canonical Machine Learning (ML) tool to flexibly model evolving parameters in a linear macro equation. Its main output, Generalized Time-Varying Parameters (GTVPs), is a…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-03-08 Philippe Goulet Coulombe

In this paper we utilize a survival analysis methodology incorporating Bayesian additive regression trees to account for nonlinear and additive covariate effects. We compare the performance of Bayesian additive regression trees, Cox…

Applications · Statistics 2019-11-05 Satabdi Saha , Duchwan Ryu , Nader Ebrahimi

Random forest (RF) missing data algorithms are an attractive approach for dealing with missing data. They have the desirable properties of being able to handle mixed types of missing data, they are adaptive to interactions and nonlinearity,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-01-23 Fei Tang , Hemant Ishwaran

This work develops formal statistical inference procedures for machine learning ensemble methods. Ensemble methods based on bootstrapping, such as bagging and random forests, have improved the predictive accuracy of individual trees, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-11 Lucas Mentch , Giles Hooker

Accuracies of survival models for life expectancy prediction as well as critical-care applications are significantly compromised due to the sparsity of samples and extreme imbalance between the survival (usually, the majority) and mortality…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-16 Kahkashan Afrin , Gurudev Illangovan , Sanjay S. Srivatsa , Satish T. S. Bukkapatnam

We propose a new approach to image segmentation, which exploits the advantages of both conditional random fields (CRFs) and decision trees. In the literature, the potential functions of CRFs are mostly defined as a linear combination of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-03-28 Fayao Liu , Guosheng Lin , Ruizhi Qiao , Chunhua Shen

We present a general principle for estimating a regression function nonparametrically, allowing for a wide variety of data filtering, for example, repeated left truncation and right censoring. Both the mean and the median regression cases…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-10 Oliver Linton , Enno Mammen , Jens Perch Nielsen , Ingrid Van Keilegom

We propose to prune a random forest (RF) for resource-constrained prediction. We first construct a RF and then prune it to optimize expected feature cost & accuracy. We pose pruning RFs as a novel 0-1 integer program with linear constraints…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-17 Feng Nan , Joseph Wang , Venkatesh Saligrama

This paper proposes a recursive interval-valued estimation framework for identifying the parameters of linearly parameterized systems which may be slowly time-varying. It is assumed that the model error (which may consist in measurement…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-22 Laurent Bako , Seydi Ndiaye , Eric Blanco

Survival analysis is a widely known method for predicting the likelihood of an event over time. The challenge of dealing with censored samples still remains. Traditional methods, such as the Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model, hinge on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Chanon Puttanawarut , Panu Looareesuwan , Romen Samuel Wabina , Prut Saowaprut

Empirical research in economics increasingly relies on restricted-access data held by multiple firms or agencies, making it impossible to construct the estimator of interest on the pooled sample. At the same time, heavy-tailed distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Wen Zhang , Songshan Yang , Liping Zhu

Counterfactual explanations are usually generated through heuristics that are sensitive to the search's initial conditions. The absence of guarantees of performance and robustness hinders trustworthiness. In this paper, we take a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-28 Axel Parmentier , Thibaut Vidal

The case-cohort design is a commonly used cost-effective sampling strategy for large cohort studies, where some covariates are expensive to measure or obtain. In this paper, we consider regression analysis under a case-cohort study with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Qingning Zhou , Kin Yau Wong

Time series classification (TSC) is home to a number of algorithm groups that utilise different kinds of discriminatory patterns. One of these groups describes classifiers that predict using phase dependant intervals. The time series forest…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Matthew Middlehurst , James Large , Anthony Bagnall

This paper introduces an assumption-lean method that constructs valid and efficient lower predictive bounds (LPBs) for survival times with censored data. We build on recent work by Cand\`es et al. (2021), whose approach first subsets the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Yu Gui , Rohan Hore , Zhimei Ren , Rina Foygel Barber

The density ratio model (DRM) is a semiparametric model that relates the distributions from multiple samples to a nonparametrically defined reference distribution via exponential tilting, with finite-dimensional parameters governing their…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 James Hugh McVittie , Archer Gong Zhang

Randomized experiments are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. However, out of the set of possible randomized assignments, some may be likely to produce poor effect estimates and misleading conclusions. Restricted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-28 Maggie Wang , René F. Kizilcec , Michael Baiocchi

Random forests is a common non-parametric regression technique which performs well for mixed-type unordered data and irrelevant features, while being robust to monotonic variable transformations. Standard random forests, however, do not…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-19 Taylor Pospisil , Ann B. Lee

Due to their efficiency and small size, decision trees and random forests are popular machine learning models used for classification on resource-constrained systems. In such systems, the available execution time for inference in a random…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Daniel Biebert , Christian Hakert , Kay Heider , Daniel Kuhse , Sebastian Buschjäger , Jian-Jia Chen

We propose a novel methodology, forest floor, to visualize and interpret random forest (RF) models. RF is a popular and useful tool for non-linear multi-variate classification and regression, which yields a good trade-off between robustness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-05 Soeren H. Welling , Hanne H. F. Refsgaard , Per B. Brockhoff , Line H. Clemmensen