English
Related papers

Related papers: Exit times for some nonlinear autoregressive proce…

200 papers

Affine point processes are a class of simple point processes with self- and mutually-exciting properties, and they have found useful applications in several areas. In this paper, we obtain large-time asymptotic expansions in large…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-26 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu

We study the exit problem of solutions of the stochastic differential equation dX(t)=-U'(X(t))dt+epsilon dL(t) from bounded or unbounded intervals which contain the unique asymptotically stable critical point of the deterministic dynamical…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter Imkeller , Ilya Pavlyukevich

We study the exit-time of a self-interacting diffusion from an open domain $G \subset \mathbb{R}^d$. In particular, we consider the equation $d{X_t} = - \left( \nabla V(X_t) + \frac{1}{t}\int_0^t\nabla F (X_t - X_s)d{s} \right) d{t} +…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-04 Ashot Aleksian , Aline Kurtzmann , Julian Tugaut

In this paper we propagate a large deviations approach for proving limit theory for (generally) multivariate time series with heavy tails. We make this notion precise by introducing regularly varying time series. We provide general large…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-02 T. Mikosch , O. Wintenberger

In this paper, we study finite-sample properties of the least squares estimator in first order autoregressive processes. By leveraging a result from decoupling theory, we derive upper bounds on the probability that the estimate deviates by…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-26 Rodrigo A. González , Cristian R. Rojas

We study the first-passage properties of a random walk in the unit interval in which the length of a single step is uniformly distributed over the finite range [-a,a]. For a of the order of one, the exit probabilities to each edge of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 T. Antal , S. Redner

The mean first exit (passage) time characterizes the average time of a stochastic process never leaving a fixed region in the state space, while the escape probability describes the likelihood of a transition from one region to another for…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-28 Weihua Deng , Xiaochao Wu , Wanli Wang

In this paper we characterize the distribution of the first exit time from an arbitrary open set for a class of semi-Markov processes obtained as time-changed Markov processes. We estimate the asymptotic behaviour of the survival function…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-05 Giacomo Ascione , Enrica Pirozzi , Bruno Toaldo

Large deviation results are given for a class of perturbed nonhomogeneous Markov chains on finite state space which formally includes some stochastic optimization algorithms. Specifically, let {P_n} be a sequence of transition matrices on a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zach Dietz , Sunder Sethuraman

Time-irreversible stochastic processes are frequently used in natural sciences to explain non-equilibrium phenomena and to design efficient stochastic algorithms. Our main goal in this thesis is to analyse their dynamics by means of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Mikola C. Schlottke

We propose a computational method for large deviation statistics of time-averaged quantities in general Markov processes. In our proposed method, we repeat a response measurement against external forces, where the forces are determined by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-03-12 Takahiro Nemoto , Shin-ichi Sasa

This paper addresses the prediction of stationary functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of first-order functional autoregressive processes because of their technical…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-01 Alexander Aue , Diogo Dubart Norinho , Siegfried Hörmann

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-08-31 Miquel Montero , Javier Villarroel

The large deviations principle for the empirical measure for both continuous and discrete time Markov processes is well known. Various expressions are available for the rate function, but these expressions are usually as the solution to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-22 Paul Dupuis , Yufei Liu

Modelling a large bundle of curves arises in a broad spectrum of real applications. However, existing literature relies primarily on the critical assumption of independent curve observations. In this paper, we provide a general theory for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-21 Shaojun Guo , Xinghao Qiao

Linear autoregressive models serve as basic representations of discrete time stochastic processes. Different attempts have been made to provide non-linear versions of the basic autoregressive process, including different versions based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-17 Edgar A. Valencia , Mauricio A. Álvarez

This work concerns generalized backward stochastic differential equations, which are coupled with a family of reflecting diffusion processes. First of all, we establish the large deviation principle for forward stochastic differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-23 Yawen Liu , Huijie Qiao

Complex systems are sometimes subject to non Gaussian alpha stable Levy fluctuations. A new method is devised to estimate this uncertain parameter and other system parameters, using observations on either mean exit time or escape…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-06-04 Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan

We analyze the finite sample regret of a decreasing step size stochastic gradient algorithm. We assume correlated noise and use a perturbed Lyapunov function as a systematic approach for the analysis. Finally we analyze the escape time of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 George Yin , Vikram Krishnamurthy

We consider a class of tempered subordinators, namely a class of subordinators with one-dimensional marginal tempered distributions which belong to a family studied in [3]. The main contribution in this paper is a non-central moderate…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-05 Nikolai Leonenko , Claudio Macci , Barbara Pacchiarotti