Related papers: Multi-stream Data Analytics for Enhanced Performan…
A myriad of different data are generated to characterize a soccer match. Here we discuss which performance indicators are particularly helpful to forecast the future results of a team via an estimation of the underlying team strengths with…
Performance prediction or forecasting sporting outcomes involves a great deal of insight into the particular area one is dealing with, and a considerable amount of intuition about the factors that bear on such outcomes and performances. The…
In recent years, many different approaches have been proposed to quantify the performances of soccer players. Since player performances are challenging to quantify directly due to the low-scoring nature of soccer, most approaches estimate…
Despite the massive popularity of the Asian Handicap (AH) football (soccer) betting market, its efficiency has not been adequately studied by the relevant literature. This paper combines rating systems with Bayesian networks and presents…
We present an extensive statistical analysis of the results of all sports competitions in five major sports leagues in England and the United States. We characterize the parity among teams by the variance in the winning fraction from…
While PageRank has been extensively used to rank sport tournament participants (teams or individuals), its superiority over simpler ranking methods has been never clearly demonstrated. We use sports results from 18 major leagues to…
Stochastic optimization algorithms have been successfully applied in several domains to find optimal solutions. Because of the ever-growing complexity of the integrated systems, novel stochastic algorithms are being proposed, which makes…
Fantasy football leagues involve strategic player trades to optimize team performance. However, identifying optimal trades is complex due to varying player projections, positional needs, and league-specific scoring. Existing approaches…
Soccer is undeniably the most popular sport world-wide and everyone from general managers and coaching staff to fans and media are interested in evaluating players' performance. Metrics applied successfully in other sports, such as the…
Fighting Fantasy is a popular recreational fantasy gaming system worldwide. Combat in this system progresses through a stochastic game involving a series of rounds, each of which may be won or lost. Each round, a limited resource (`luck')…
In basketball and hockey, state-of-the-art player value statistics are often variants of Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM). But APM hasn't had the same impact in soccer, since soccer games are low scoring with a low number of substitutions. In…
Huge amounts of money are invested every year by football clubs on transfers. For both growth and survival, it is crucial for recruiting departments to make smart choices when targeting players. Therefore, it is very important to identify…
This paper presents a new framework for player valuation in European football, by fusing principles from financial mathematics and network theory. The valuation model leverages a "passing matrix" to encapsulate player interactions on the…
Traditional interpretations of probability, whether frequentist or subjective, make no reference to the concept of energy. In this paper, we propose that assigning hypothetical energy levels to the outcomes of a random variable can yield…
Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the…
League of Legends (LoL) is the most widely played multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) game in the world. An important aspect of LoL is competitive ranked play, which utilizes a skill-based matchmaking system to form fair teams. However,…
In this paper a new heuristic optimization algorithm has been introduced based on the performance of the major football leagues within each season in EU countries. The algorithm starts with an initial population including three different…
Modelling football outcomes has gained increasing attention, in large part due to the potential for making substantial profits. Despite the strong connection existing between football models and the bookmakers' betting odds, no authors have…
We use a simple machine learning model, logistically-weighted regularized linear least squares regression, in order to predict baseball, basketball, football, and hockey games. We do so using only the thirty-year record of which visiting…
Performative prediction characterizes environments where predictive models alter the very data distributions they aim to forecast, triggering complex feedback loops. While prior research treats single-agent and multi-agent performativity as…