Related papers: Evaluating one-shot tournament predictions
For some time, point-differential has been thought to be a better predictor for future NBA success than pure win-loss record. Most ranking and team performance predictions rely largely on point-differential, often with some normalizations…
Computing reachability probabilities is a fundamental problem in the analysis of probabilistic programs. This paper aims at a comprehensive and comparative account on various martingale-based methods for over- and under-approximating…
A myriad of different data are generated to characterize a soccer match. Here we discuss which performance indicators are particularly helpful to forecast the future results of a team via an estimation of the underlying team strengths with…
Selecting from or ranking a set of candidates variables in terms of their capacity for predicting an outcome of interest is an important task in many scientific fields. A variety of methods for variable selection and ranking have been…
Competitor rating systems for head-to-head games are typically used to measure playing strength from game outcomes. Ratings computed from these systems are often used to select top competitors for elite events, for pairing players of…
In this work, we present a methodology to estimate the strength of handball teams using a statistical method. We propose the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to model the number of goals scored by a team as a flexible discrete…
Bookmakers' odds consistently provide one of the most accurate methods for predicting the results of professional tennis matches. However, these odds usually only become available shortly before a match takes place, limiting their…
A random walk-like model is considered to discuss statistical aspects of tournaments. The model is applied to soccer leagues with emphasis on the scores. This competitive system was computationally simulated and the results are compared…
The score set of a tournament is defined as the set of its distinct out-degrees. In 1978, Reid proposed the conjecture that for any set of nonnegative integers $D$, there exists a tournament $T$ with a degree set $D$. In 1989, Yao presented…
In evolutionary algorithms a critical parameter that must be tuned is that of selection pressure. If it is set too low then the rate of convergence towards the optimum is likely to be slow. Alternatively if the selection pressure is set too…
Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability. Yet, conformal prediction is not…
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) performance predictors tend to base their algorithms purely on historical statistical data. The main problems with this approach is that external factors such as injuries, managerial decisions and other…
We consider the problem of selecting confounders for adjustment from a potentially large set of covariates, when estimating a causal effect. Recently, the high-dimensional Propensity Score (hdPS) method was developed for this task; hdPS…
Standard measures of batting performance such as a batting average and an on-base percentage can be decomposed into component rates such as strikeout rates and home run rates. The likelihood of hitting data for a group of players can be…
The Triple Scoring Task at the WSDM Cup 2017 involves the prediction of the relevance scores between persons and professions/nationalities. The ground truth of the relevance scores was obtained by counting the vote of seven crowdworkers. I…
In this paper we address the problem of using one probability space for estimating parameters and predicting future data when the observed data come from multiple contexts and thus from distinct spaces. We explain that a set-based…
Daily fantasy sports (DFS) are weekly or daily online contests where real-game performances of individual players are converted to fantasy points (FPTS). Users select players for their lineup to maximize their FPTS within a set player…
This article deals with ranking methods. We study the situation where a tournament between $n$ players $P_1$, $P_2$, \ldots $P_n$ gives the ranking $P_1 \succ P_2 \succ \cdots \succ P_n$, but, if the results of $P_n$ are no longer taken…
A tournament is a method to decide the winner in a competition, and describes the overall sequence in which matches between the players are held. While deciding a worthy winner is the primary goal of a tournament, a close second is to…
What does it mean to say that, for example, the probability for rain tomorrow is between 20% and 30%? The theory for the evaluation of precise probabilistic forecasts is well-developed and is grounded in the key concepts of proper scoring…