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The interplay between bifurcations and random switching processes of vector fields is studied. More precisely, we provide a classification of piecewise deterministic Markov processes arising from stochastic switching dynamics near fold,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-03 Tobias Hurth , Christian Kuehn

We consider a piecewise deterministic Markov decision process, where the expected exponential utility of total (nonnegative) cost is to be minimized. The cost rate, transition rate and post-jump distributions are under control. The state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Xin Guo , Yi Zhang

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

Large deviation functions are an essential tool in the statistics of rare events. Often they can be obtained by contraction from a so-called level 2 large deviation {\em functional} characterizing the empirical density of the underlying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-24 Johannes Hoppenau , Daniel Nickelsen , Andreas Engel

We consider a family of positive operator valued measures associated with representations of compact connected Lie groups. For many independent copies of a single state and a tensor power representation we show that the observed probability…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2024-09-04 Alonso Botero , Matthias Christandl , Péter Vrana

We give a short overview of recent results on a specific class of Markov process: the Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). We first recall the definition of these processes and give some general results. On more specific cases…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-25 Romain Azaïs , Jean-Baptiste Bardet , Alexandre Genadot , Nathalie Krell , Pierre-André Zitt

We study the empirical process arising from a multi-dimensional diffusion process with periodic drift and diffusivity. The smoothing properties of the generator of the diffusion are exploited to prove the Donsker property for certain…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-06 Neil Deo

The large time dynamics of a periodically driven Fokker-Planck process possessing several metastable states is investigated. At weak noise transitions between the metastable states are rare. Their dynamics then represent a discrete…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-09-05 Changho Kim , Peter Talkner , Eok Kyun Lee , Peter Hanggi

We recover the Donsker-Varadhan large deviations principle (LDP) for the empirical measure of a continuous time Markov chain on a countable (finite or infinite) state space from the joint LDP for the empirical measure and the empirical flow…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-01 L. Bertini , A. Faggionato , D. Gabrielli

We study the large deviation function for the entropy production rate in two driven one-dimensional systems: the asymmetric random walk on a discrete lattice and Brownian motion in a continuous periodic potential. We compare two approaches:…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-01-21 Thomas Speck , Andreas Engel , Udo Seifert

Understanding and predicting the dynamical properties of systems involving dry friction is a major concern in physics and engineering. It abounds in many mechanical processes, from the sound produced by a violin to the screeching of chalk…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-16 Josselin Garnier , Ziyu Lu , Laurent Mertz

We study a scenario under which variable step random walks give anomalous statistics. We begin by analyzing the Martingale Central Limit Theorem to find a sufficient condition for the limit distribution to be non-Gaussian. We note that the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 Gemunu H. Gunaratne , Joseph L. McCauley , Matthew Nicol , Andrei Torok

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-11 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Predictability of behavior has emerged an an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, and marketing. Behavior can be recorded as a sequence of actions performed by an individual over a given time period. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-13 Brian Vegetabile , Jenny Molet , Tallie Z. Baram , Hal Stern

We consider a pure jump process $\{X_t\}_{t\ge 0}$ with values in a finite state space $S= \{1, \ldots, d\}$ for which the jump rates at time instant $t$ depend on the occupation measure $L_t \doteq t^{-1} \int_0^t \delta_{X_s}\,ds$. Such…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-17 Amarjit Budhiraja , Francesco Coghi

This paper contains two parts. In the first part, we study the ergodicity of periodic measures of random dynamical systems on a separable Banach space. We obtain that the periodic measure of the continuous time skew-product dynamical system…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-12 Chunrong Feng , Baoyou Qu , Huaizhong Zhao

With $M(t):=\sup_{s\in[0,t]}A(s)-s$ denoting the running maximum of a fractional Brownian motion $A(\cdot)$ with negative drift, this paper studies the rate of convergence of $\mathbb {P}(M(t)>x)$ to $\mathbb{P}(M>x)$. We define two metrics…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-01 Michel Mandjes , Ilkka Norros , Peter Glynn

We study the computational complexity of zigzag sampling algorithm for strongly log-concave distributions. The zigzag process has the advantage of not requiring time discretization for implementation, and that each proposed bouncing event…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-07 Jianfeng Lu , Lihan Wang

We extend Monte Carlo samplers based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP samplers) by formally defining different boundary conditions such as sticky floors, soft and hard walls and teleportation portals. This allows PDMP…

Computation · Statistics 2023-03-15 Joris Bierkens , Sebastiano Grazzi , Gareth Roberts , Moritz Schauer

We study a system of N particles with logarithmic, Coulomb or Riesz pairwise interactions, confined by an external potential. We examine a microscopic quantity, the tagged empirical field, for which we prove a large deviation principle at…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-11 Thomas Leblé , Sylvia Serfaty