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This work develops change-point methods for statistics of high-frequency data. The main interest is in the volatility of an It\^{o} semi-martingale, the latter being discretely observed over a fixed time horizon. We construct a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-13 Markus Bibinger , Moritz Jirak , Mathias Vetter

We consider a $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued branching random walk with a stationary and ergodic environment $\xi=(\xi_n)$ indexed by time $n\in\mathbb{N}$. Let $Z_n$ be the counting measure of particles of generation $n$. With the help of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-15 Chunmao Huang , Xin Wang , Xiaoqiang Wang

Random walk in a dynamic i.i.d. beta random environment, conditioned to escape at an atypical velocity, converges to a Doob transform of the original walk. The Doob-transformed environment is correlated in time, i.i.d. in space, and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-17 Márton Balázs , Firas Rassoul-Agha , Timo Seppäläinen

We derive an annealed large deviation principle for the normalised local times of a continuous-time random walk among random conductances in a finite domain in $\Z^d$ in the spirit of Donsker-Varadhan \cite{DV75}. We work in the interesting…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-11 Wolfgang König , Michele Salvi , Tilman Wolff

Let $(X_n)_{n \in\mathbb{N}}$ be a $V$-geometrically ergodic Markov chain on a measurable space $\mathbb{X}$ with invariant probability distribution $\pi$. In this paper, we propose a discretization scheme providing a computable sequence…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-09 Loic Hervé , James Ledoux

We prove a large deviation principle for the sequence of push-forwards of empirical measures in the setting of Riesz potential interactions on compact subsets K in R^d with continuous external fields. Our results are valid for base measures…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2016-10-27 Tom Bloom , Norman Levenberg , Franck Wielonsky

We introduce a Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently compute transport properties of chaotic dynamical systems. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique that favors trajectories in the tail of the distribution of displacements,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-05-25 Diego Tapias , David P. Sanders , Eduardo G. Altmann

We consider a class of discrete time Markov chains with state space [0,1] and the following dynamics. At each time step, first the direction of the next transition is chosen at random with probability depending on the current location. Then…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-04 Shaun McKinlay , Konstantin Borovkov

We formulate a finite-size particle numerical model of strongly magnetized plasmas in the drift-kinetic approximation. We use the phase space action as an alternative to previous variational formulations based on Low's Lagrangian or on a…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2014-08-05 E. G. Evstatiev

A novel approach called Moate Simulation is presented to provide an accurate numerical evolution of probability distribution functions represented on grids arising from stochastic differential processes where initial conditions are…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-19 Michael E. Mura

We provide a probabilistic description of the stationary measures for the open KPZ on the spatial interval $[0,1]$ in terms of a Markov process $Y$, which is a Doob's $h$ transform of the Brownian motion killed at an exponential rate. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-04 Wlodek Bryc , Alexey Kuznetsov , Yizao Wang , Jacek Wesolowski

We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Junfeng Wen , Bo Dai , Lihong Li , Dale Schuurmans

A basic result of large deviations theory is Sanov's theorem, which states that the sequence of empirical measures of independent and identically distributed samples satisfies the large deviation principle with rate function given by…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-17 Markus Fischer

We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Balazs Gerencser , Miklos Rasonyi

The reduction of a continuous Markov process with multiple metastable states to a discrete rate process is investigated in the presence of slow time dependent parameters such as periodic external forces or slowly fluctuating barrier…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Peter Talkner , Jerzy Luczka

We prove pathwise large-deviation principles of switching Markov processes by exploiting the connection to associated Hamilton-Jacobi equations, following Jin Feng's and Thomas Kurtz's method. In the limit that we consider, we show how the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-08 Mark A. Peletier , Mikola C. Schlottke

We consider the piecewise-deterministic Markov process obtained by randomly switching between the flows generated by a finite set of smooth vector fields on a compact set. We obtain H\"ormander-type conditions on the vector fields…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-14 Michel Benaïm , Oliver Tough

We consider Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) with a finite set of discrete states. In the regime of fast jumps between discrete states, we prove a law of large number and a large deviation principle. In the regime of fast…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-16 A. Faggionato , D. Gabrielli , M. Ribezzi Crivellari

This article describes a method for using optimization to derive efficient independent transition functions for Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. Our interest is in sampling from a posterior density $\pi(x)$ for problems in which the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-06-03 Dean S. Oliver

The sampling of the configuration space in diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) is done using walkers moving randomly. In a previous work on the Hubbard model [\href{https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevB.60.2299}{Assaraf et al.~Phys.~Rev.~B \textbf{60},…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2023-01-19 Roland Assaraf , Emmanuel Giner , Vijay Gopal Chilkuri , Pierre-François Loos , Anthony Scemama , Michel Caffarel
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