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This work introduces a novel, simple, and flexible method to quantify irreversibility in generic high-dimensional time series based on the well-known mapping to a binary classification problem. Our approach utilizes gradient boosting for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-01-09 Michele Vodret , Cristiano Pacini , Christian Bongiorno

Statistical differentiability of the measure along the reconstructed trajectory is a good candidate to quantify determinism in time series. The procedure is based upon a formula that explicitly shows the sensitivity of the measure to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 Guillermo J. Ortega , Enrique Louis

We consider a generic Hamiltonian system of nonlinear interacting waves with 3-wave interactions. In the kinetic regime of wave turbulence, which assumes weak nonlinearity and large system size, the relevant observable associated with the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-09-07 Jules Guioth , Freddy Bouchet , Gregory L. Eyink

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a powerful framework for training robust models against data distribution shifts. This paper focuses on constrained DRO, which has an explicit characterization of the robustness level. Existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-02 Qi Zhang , Yi Zhou , Ashley Prater-Bennette , Lixin Shen , Shaofeng Zou

In big data analysis, a simple task such as linear regression can become very challenging as the variable dimension $p$ grows. As a result, variable screening is inevitable in many scientific studies. In recent years, randomized algorithms…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-13 Yu-Hsiang Cheng , Tzee-Ming Huang , Su-Yun Huang

We present the stochastic thermodynamics analysis of an open quantum system weakly coupled to multiple reservoirs and driven by a rapidly oscillating external field. The analysis is built on a modified stochastic master equation in the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-12 Gregory Bulnes Cuetara , Andreas Engel , Massimiliano Esposito

A Freidlin-Wentzell type large deviation principle is established for stochastic partial differential equations with slow and fast time-scales, where the slow component is a one-dimensional stochastic Burgers equation with small noise and…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Xiaobin Sun , Ran Wang , Lihu Xu , Xue Yang

Large language models perform text generation through high-dimensional internal dynamics, yet the temporal organisation of these dynamics remains poorly understood. Most interpretability approaches emphasise static representations or causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Hassan Ugail , Newton Howard

Reinforcement learning methods for robotics are increasingly successful due to the constant development of better policy gradient techniques. A precise (low variance) and accurate (low bias) gradient estimator is crucial to face…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-09 Joao Carvalho , Jan Peters

Decomposing complex time series into trend, seasonality, and remainder components is an important task to facilitate time series anomaly detection and forecasting. Although numerous methods have been proposed, there are still many time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-06 Qingsong Wen , Jingkun Gao , Xiaomin Song , Liang Sun , Huan Xu , Shenghuo Zhu

Motivated by learning of correlated equilibria in non-cooperative games, we perform a large deviations analysis of a regret minimizing stochastic approximation algorithm. The regret minimization algorithm we consider comprises multiple…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Hongjiang Qian , Vikram Krishnamurthy

Divergence estimators based on direct approximation of density-ratios without going through separate approximation of numerator and denominator densities have been successfully applied to machine learning tasks that involve distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-06-24 Makoto Yamada , Taiji Suzuki , Takafumi Kanamori , Hirotaka Hachiya , Masashi Sugiyama

We investigate piecewise-linear stochastic models as with regards to the probability distribution of functionals of the stochastic processes, a question which occurs frequently in large deviation theory. The functionals that we are looking…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-22 Yaming Chen , Wolfram Just

The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-13 Cecile Monthus

We provide a detailed importance sampling analysis for variance reduction in stochastic volatility models. The optimal change of measure is obtained using a variety of results from large and moderate deviations: small-time, large-time,…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-02 Marc Geha , Antoine Jacquier , Zan Zuric

We present a phenomenological theory of filamentary resistive random access memory (RRAM) describing the commonly observed features of their current-voltage characteristics. Our approach follows the approach of thermodynamic theory…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2017-09-06 Victor Karpov , Dipesh Niraula , Ilya Karpov , Roza Kotlyar

Rate processes are simple and analytically tractable models for many dynamical systems which switch stochastically between a discrete set of quasi stationary states but they may also approximate continuous processes by coarse grained,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-03-11 R. Toenjes , H. Kori

We study the distribution of additive functionals of reset Brownian motion, a variation of normal Brownian motion in which the path is interrupted at a given rate and placed back to a given reset position. Our goal is two-fold: (1) For…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-30 Frank den Hollander , Satya N. Majumdar , Janusz M. Meylahn , Hugo Touchette

Motivated by policy gradient methods in the context of reinforcement learning, we identify a large deviation rate function for the iterates generated by stochastic gradient descent for possibly non-convex objectives satisfying a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Wouter Jongeneel , Daniel Kuhn , Mengmeng Li

We give a method for proactively identifying small, plausible shifts in distribution which lead to large differences in model performance. These shifts are defined via parametric changes in the causal mechanisms of observed variables, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Nikolaj Thams , Michael Oberst , David Sontag
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