Related papers: Risk-Aware MMSE Estimation
We consider the problems of estimation and optimization of two popular convex risk measures: utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR) and Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk. We extend these risk measures to cover possibly unbounded random…
Solving chance-constrained optimal control problems for systems subject to non-stationary uncertainties is a significant challenge.Conventional robust model predictive control (MPC) often yields excessive conservatism by relying on static…
We present the derivation of post-processing SNR for Minimum-Mean-Squared-Error (MMSE) receivers with imperfect channel estimates, and show that it is an accurate indicator of the error rate performance of MIMO systems in the presence of…
We treat the problem of risk-aware control for stochastic shortest path (SSP) on Markov decision processes (MDP). Typically, expectation is considered for SSP, which however is oblivious to the incurred risk. We present an alternative view,…
We develop a new approach for the estimation of a multivariate function based on the economic axioms of quasiconvexity (and monotonicity). On the computational side, we prove the existence of the quasiconvex constrained least squares…
We consider stochastic optimization problems which use observed data to estimate essential characteristics of the random quantities involved. Sample average approximation (SAA) or empirical (plug-in) estimation are very popular ways to use…
It has previously been shown that ordinary least squares can be used to estimate the coefficients of the single-index model under only mild conditions. However, the estimator is non-robust leading to poor estimates for some models. In this…
Deep learning-based multivariate and multistep-ahead traffic forecasting models are typically trained with the mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE) as the loss function in a sequence-to-sequence setting, simply assuming…
Minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimators of signals from samples corrupted by jitter (timing noise) and additive noise are nonlinear, even when the signal prior and additive noise have normal distributions. This paper develops a…
This paper considers mean square error (MSE) analysis for stochastic gradient sampling algorithms applied to underdamped Langevin dynamics under a global convexity assumption. A novel discrete Poisson equation framework is developed to…
Volatility prediction in the financial market helps to understand the profit and involved risks in investment. However, due to irregularities, high fluctuations, and noise in the time series, predicting volatility poses a challenging task.…
We study large deviation upper bounds and mean-squared error (MSE) guarantees of a general framework of nonlinear stochastic gradient methods in the online setting, in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. Unlike existing works that rely on…
Nested-error regression models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. For example, they are often applied to two-stage sample surveys, and in biology and econometrics. Prediction is usually the main goal of such analyses, and…
The estimation of risk measures recently gained a lot of attention, partly because of the backtesting issues of expected shortfall related to elicitability. In this work we shed a new and fundamental light on optimal estimation procedures…
The standard approach for constructing a Mean-Variance portfolio involves estimating parameters for the model using collected samples. However, since the distribution of future data may not resemble that of the training set, the…
We analyze the problem of estimating a signal from multiple measurements on a $\mbox{group action channel}$ that linearly transforms a signal by a random group action followed by a fixed projection and additive Gaussian noise. This channel…
The assessment of risk based on historical data faces many challenges, in particular due to the limited amount of available data, lack of stationarity, and heavy tails. While estimation on a short-term horizon for less extreme percentiles…
We consider the problem of robustly predicting as well as the best linear combination of $d$ given functions in least squares regression, and variants of this problem including constraints on the parameters of the linear combination. For…
When recovering an unknown signal from noisy measurements, the computational difficulty of performing optimal Bayesian MMSE (minimum mean squared error) inference often necessitates the use of maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference, a special…
There exist several methods developed for the canonical change point problem of detecting multiple mean shifts, which search for changes over sections of the data at multiple scales. In such methods, estimation of the noise level is often…