Related papers: Risk-Aware MMSE Estimation
In machine learning forecasting, standard error metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE) quantify discrepancies between predictions and target values. However, these metrics do not directly evaluate the…
We present a framework for constructing multivariate risk measures that is inspired from univariate Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk measures. We show that this new class of risk measures verifies the desirable properties such as…
Variance estimation in the linear model when $p > n$ is a difficult problem. Standard least squares estimation techniques do not apply. Several variance estimators have been proposed in the literature, all with accompanying asymptotic…
We investigate schemes for Hamiltonian parameter estimation of a two-level system using repeated measurements in a fixed basis. The simplest (Fourier based) schemes yield an estimate with a mean square error (MSE) that decreases at best as…
In this work, we propose a mean-squared error-based risk that enables the comparison and optimization of estimators of squared calibration errors in practical settings. Improving the calibration of classifiers is crucial for enhancing the…
We study the multi-task linear regression problem in the presence of contaminated tasks. We address the setting where the unknown parameters of a majority of tasks are close in the $\ell_2$-norm, while a fraction of tasks are arbitrary…
To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…
The maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) is a kernel-based distance between probability distributions useful in many applications (Gretton et al. 2012), bearing a simple estimator with pleasing computational and statistical properties. Being able…
Under losses which are potentially heavy-tailed, we consider the task of minimizing sums of the loss mean and standard deviation, without trying to accurately estimate the variance. By modifying a technique for variance-free robust mean…
This paper considers the quantification of the prediction performance in Gaussian process regression. The standard approach is to base the prediction error bars on the theoretical predictive variance, which is a lower bound on the mean…
Quantiles and expected shortfalls are usually used to measure risks of stochastic systems, which are often estimated by Monte Carlo methods. This paper focuses on the use of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method, whose convergence rate is…
In this paper, an anti-eavesdropping estimation problem is investigated. A linear encryption scheme is utilized, which first linearly transforms innovation via an encryption matrix and then encrypts some components of the transformed…
The problem of estimating an unknown deterministic parameter vector from sign measurements with a perturbed sensing matrix is studied in this paper. We analyze the best achievable mean square error (MSE) performance by exploring the…
The two-level normal hierarchical model (NHM) has played a critical role in the theory of small area estimation (SAE), one of the growing areas in statistics with numerous applications in different disciplines. In this paper, we address…
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error…
Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…
Sparse coding refers to the pursuit of the sparsest representation of a signal in a typically overcomplete dictionary. From a Bayesian perspective, sparse coding provides a Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimate of the unknown vector under a…
Accurate load prediction is an effective way to reduce power system operation costs. Traditionally, the mean square error (MSE) is a common-used loss function to guide the training of an accurate load forecasting model. However, the MSE…
Linear minimum mean square error (LMMSE) estimation is often ill-conditioned, suggesting that unconstrained minimization of the mean square error is an inadequate approach to filter design. To address this, we first develop a unifying…
Coping with distributional shifts is an important part of transfer learning methods in order to perform well in real-life tasks. However, most of the existing approaches in this area either focus on an ideal scenario in which the data does…