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Satellite conjunctions involving near misses of space objects are increasingly common, especially with the growth of satellite constellations and space debris. Accurate risk analysis for these events is essential to prevent collisions and…

This paper investigates methods for estimating uncertainty in semantic segmentation predictions derived from satellite imagery. Estimating uncertainty for segmentation presents unique challenges compared to standard image classification,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Melanie Rey , Andriy Mnih , Maxim Neumann , Matt Overlan , Drew Purves

Uncertainty estimation has been extensively studied in recent literature, which can usually be classified as aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. In current aleatoric uncertainty estimation frameworks, it is often neglected that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Jing Zhang , Yuchao Dai , Mehrtash Harandi , Yiran Zhong , Nick Barnes , Richard Hartley

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based data-driven weather forecasting models have experienced rapid progress over the last years. Recent studies, with models trained on reanalysis data, achieve impressive results and demonstrate substantial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-02 Christopher Bülte , Nina Horat , Julian Quinting , Sebastian Lerch

Over the last quarter-century, spacecraft conjunction assessment has focused on a quantity associated by its advocates with collision probability. This quantity has a well-known dilution feature, where it is small when uncertainty is large,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-01 J. Russell Carpenter , Anthony C. Davison , Soumaya Elkantassi , Matthew D. Hejduk

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

Modern computers enable methods for design optimization that account for uncertainty in the system---so-called optimization under uncertainty. We propose a metric for OUU that measures the distance between a designer-specified probability…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-08-10 Pranay Seshadri , Paul Constantine , Gianluca Iaccarino , Geoffrey Parks

Mistakes/uncertainties in object detection could lead to catastrophes when deploying robots in the real world. In this paper, we measure the uncertainties of object localization to minimize this kind of risk. Uncertainties emerge upon…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Yihui He , Jianren Wang

Data science and informatics tools have been proliferating recently within the computational materials science and catalysis fields. This proliferation has spurned the creation of various frameworks for automated materials screening,…

Materials Science · Physics 2020-02-21 Kevin Tran , Willie Neiswanger , Junwoong Yoon , Qingyang Zhang , Eric Xing , Zachary W. Ulissi

Kernel density estimation is a popular method for estimating unseen probability distributions. However, the convergence of these classical estimators to the true density slows down in high dimensions. Moreover, they do not define meaningful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-30 Jack Kendrick

A new clustering accuracy measure is proposed to determine the unknown number of clusters and to assess the quality of clustering of a data set given in any dimensional space. Our validity index applies the classical nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-15 Soumita Modak

In this work, we introduce a novel Deep Learning-based method to perceive the environment of a vehicle based on radar scans while accounting for uncertainties in its predictions. The environment of the host vehicle is segmented into equally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Marco Braun , Moritz Luszek , Jan Siegemund , Kevin Kollek , Anton Kummert

In star-forming clouds, high velocity flow gives rise to large fluctuations of density. In this work we explore the correlation between velocity magnitude (speed) and density. We develop an analytic formula for the joint probability…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2023-08-02 Branislav Rabatin , David C. Collins

A precise determination of the local dark matter density and an accurate control over the corresponding uncertainties are of paramount importance for Dark Matter (DM) searches. Using very recent high-resolution numerical simulations of a…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2014-11-21 Miguel Pato , Oscar Agertz , Gianfranco Bertone , Ben Moore , Romain Teyssier

Ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tools for investigating climate sensitivity, projecting future climate states, and quantifying uncertainty. GCM ensembles are subject to substantial uncertainty due to model…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-29 Trevor Harris , Ryan Sriver

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-05-17 Matthias Kellner , Michele Ceriotti

We propose a novel method of determination of the dust particle spatial distribution in dust clouds that form in three-dimensional (3D) complex plasmas under microgravity conditions. The method utilizes the data obtained during the 3D…

Seismic inversion is essential for geophysical exploration and geological assessment, but it is inherently subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty stems primarily from the limited information provided by observed seismic data,…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-09-12 Luping Qu , Mauricio Araya-Polo , Laurent Demanet

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , J. Christine Chiu , C. Kevin Yang

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Marco Forgione , Dario Piga