Related papers: The Microstructure of Stochastic Volatility Models…
We consider uncorrelated Stein-Stein, Heston, and Hull-White models and their perturbations by compound Poisson processes with jump amplitudes distributed according to a double exponential law. Similar perturbations of the Black-Scholes…
We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of…
The random values and volumes of consecutive trades made at the exchange with shares of security determine its mean, variance, and higher statistical moments. The volume weighted average price (VWAP) is the simplest example of such a…
We propose a non linear Langevin equation as a model for stock market fluctuations and crashes. This equation is based on an identification of the different processes influencing the demand and supply, and their mathematical transcription.…
We simulate a series of daily returns from intraday price movements initiated by microstructure elements. Significant evidence is found that daily returns and daily return volatility exhibit first order autocorrelation, but trading volume…
We study a neural network model of interacting stochastic discrete two--state cellular automata on a regular lattice. The system is externally tuned to a critical point which varies with the degree of stochasticity (or the effective…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
The model describing market dynamics after a large financial crash is considered in terms of the stochastic differential equation of Ito. Physically, the model presents an overdamped Brownian particle moving in the nonstationary…
This paper is devoted to the price-storage dynamics in natural gas markets. A novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model is introduced with path-dependence in both price volatility and storage increments. Model calibrations are…
We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold $q$ for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can…
We study a regulation problem for stochastic systems subject to both continuous fluctuations and rare but significant shocks, modeled as a jump-diffusion with uncertainty in both the drift and the jump intensity. Such settings arise in…
We investigate instabilities in a stochastic mathematical model of cochlear dynamics. The cochlea is modeled as a spatio-temporal dynamical system made up of a spatially distributed array of coupled oscillators, together with the cochlear…
The presence of self-organized criticality in biology is often evidenced by a power-law scaling of event size distributions, which can be measured by linear regression on logarithmic axes. We show here that such a procedure does not…
In this paper we explain the wild fluctuations of financial prices from the intrinsic amplifying feedback of speculative supply and demand. Formally, we show that an asset return follows a multiplicative random growth with exogenous input,…
In the Cont-Bouchaud model [cond-mat/9712318] of stock markets, percolation clusters act as buying or selling investors and their statistics controls that of the price variations. Rather than fixing the concentration controlling each…
The onset of frictional motion is mediated by rupture-like slip fronts, which nucleate locally and propagate eventually along the entire interface causing global sliding. The static friction coefficient is a macroscopic measure of the…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
We study the Heston model, where the stock price dynamics is governed by a geometrical (multiplicative) Brownian motion with stochastic variance. We solve the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation exactly and, after integrating out the…
We introduce a class of multi-scale systems with discrete time, motivated by the problem of inviscid limit in fluid dynamics in the presence of small-scale noise. These systems are infinite-dimensional and defined on a scale-invariant…
This paper proposes an empirical test of financial contagion in European equity markets during the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. Our analysis shows that traditional GARCH and Gaussian stochastic-volatility models are unable to explain two…