Related papers: Stochastic SIR Levy jump model with heavy tailed i…
In this work, we discuss the SIR epidemiological model and different variations of it applied to the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemia; we employ the data of the state of Guanajuato and of Mexico. We present some considerations that can…
The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…
In numerous papers, the behaviour of stochastic population models is investigated through the sign of a real quantity which is the growth rate of the population near the extinction set. In many cases, it is proven that when this growth rate…
In the standard SIR model, infected vertices infect their neighbors at rate $\lambda$ independently across each edge. They also recover at rate $\gamma$. In this work we consider the SIR-$\omega$ model where the graph structure itself…
We present three data driven model-types for COVID-19 with a minimal number of parameters to provide insights into the spread of the disease that may be used for developing policy responses. The first is exponential growth, widely studied…
In this chapter, we consider a reaction-diffusion SVIR infection model with dis-tributed delay and nonlinear incidence rate. The wellposedness of the proposed model is proved. By means of Lyapunov functionals, we show that the disease-free…
This paper proposes a novel discrete-time multi-virus susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model that captures the spread of competing epidemics over a population network. First, we provide sufficient conditions for the infection level of…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
To better describe the spread of a disease, we extend a discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model of Tuckwell and Williams. We assume the dependence on time of the number of daily encounters and include a parameter to represent a…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…
This study presents a family of stochastic models for the dynamics of influenza in a closed human population. We consider treatment for the disease in the form of vaccination, and incorporate the periods of effectiveness of the vaccine and…
In this paper, a stochastic SEQIR epidemic model with Markovian regime-switching is proposed and investigated. The governmental policy and implement efficiency are concerned by a generalized incidence function of the susceptible class. We…
The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in…
A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous function…
Based on the classical continuous system initially proposed by Bailey in 1975, we present a novel Susceptible--Infected--Removed (SIR) model defined in quantum time, where the temporal evolution is governed by a non-uniform time grid. An…
Recent work from public health experts suggests that incorporating human behavior is crucial in faithfully modeling an epidemic. We present a reaction-diffusion partial differential equation SIR-type population model for an epidemic…
We introduce a class of interest rate models, called the $\alpha$-CIR model, which gives a natural extension of the standard CIR model by adopting the $\alpha$-stable L{\'e}vy process and preserving the branching property. This model allows…