Related papers: A note on observation processes in epidemic models
Global pandemics, such as the recent COVID-19 crisis, highlight the need for stochastic epidemic models that can capture the randomness inherent in the spread of disease. Such models must be accompanied by methods for estimating parameters…
This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…
We present a model of contagion that unifies and generalizes existing models of the spread of social influences and micro-organismal infections. Our model incorporates individual memory of exposure to a contagious entity (e.g., a rumor or…
We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…
In Part 1, we introduced a stochastic model of an infectious disease, based on the BDI (birth and death with immigration) process. We showed that random processes defined by this model can capture the essence of the stochastic, often…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than…
What role do asymptomatically infected individuals play in the transmission dynamics? There are many diseases, such as norovirus and influenza, where some infected hosts show symptoms of the disease while others are asymptomatically…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
This article is devoted to the analysis of a particle system model for epidemics among a finite population with susceptible, infective and removed individuals (SIR). The infection mechanism depends on the relative distance between…
Epidemic models and self-exciting processes are two types of models used to describe diffusion phenomena online and offline. These models were originally developed in different scientific communities, and their commonalities are…
We consider Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models on dense dynamic random graphs, in which the joint dynamics of vertices and edges are co-evolutionary, i.e., they influence each other bidirectionally. In particular, edges appear and…
In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…
The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
This paper studies the problem of detecting the information source in a network in which the spread of information follows the popular Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. We assume all nodes in the network are in the susceptible…
The susceptible-exposed-infectious-susceptible (SEIS) model is well-known in mathematical epidemiology as a model of infection in which there is a latent period between the moment of infection and the onset of infectiousness. The…
The integration of empirical data in computational frameworks to model the spread of infectious diseases poses challenges that are becoming pressing with the increasing availability of high-resolution information on human mobility and…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…
Forecasting transmission of infectious diseases, especially for vector-borne diseases, poses unique challenges for researchers. Behaviors of and interactions between viruses, vectors, hosts, and the environment each play a part in…