Related papers: A note on observation processes in epidemic models
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Epidemic propagation on networks represents an important departure from traditional massaction models. However, the high-dimensionality of the exact models poses a challenge to both mathematical analysis and parameter inference. By using…
We analyze the identifiability and observability of the well-known SIR epidemic model with an additional compartment Q of the sub-population of infected individuals that are placed in quarantine (SIQR model), considering that the flow of…
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…
We study a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model on a network of $n$ interacting subpopulations. We analyze the transient and asymptotic behavior of the infection dynamics in each node of the network. In contrast to the…
In the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) models, the peak of infected individuals coincides with the in ection point of removed individuals. Nevertheless, a survey based on the data…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
We introduce a new method to efficiently approximate the number of infections resulting from a given initially-infected node in a network of susceptible individuals. Our approach is based on counting the number of possible infection walks…
During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortunately, direct measures of infectiousness are generally…
Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…
The study of citations in the scientific literature crosses the boundaries between the traditional branches of science and stands on its own as a most profitable research field dubbed the `science of science'. Although the understanding of…
We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…
This paper focuses on and analyzes realistic SIR models that take stochasticity into account. The proposed systems are applicable to most incidence rates that are used in the literature including the bilinear incidence rate, the…
SIRS epidemic models assume that individual immunity (from infection and vaccination) wanes in one big leap, from complete immunity to complete susceptibility. For many diseases immunity on the contrary wanes gradually, something that's…
We numerically study the dynamics of the SIR disease model on small-world networks by using a large-deviation approach. This allows us to obtain the probability density function of the total fraction of infected nodes and of the maximum…
This paper investigates the spread of infectious diseases within a networked community by integrating epidemic transmission and public opinion dynamics. We propose a novel discrete-time networked SIS (Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible)…
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…
The non-population conserving SIR (SIR-NC) model to describe the spread of infections in a community is proposed and studied. Unlike the standard SIR model, SIR-NC does not assume population conservation. Although similar in form to the…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
We study the propagation of an SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) disease over an agent population which, at any instant, is fully divided into couples of agents. Couples are occasionally allowed to exchange their members. This process…