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Air traffic operations are strongly influenced by convective weather, and one common response is pathfinder operations, in which a designated aircraft tests the viability of weather-impacted airspace and routes. Despite relatively routine…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a crucial part of the climate system because of its associated northward heat transport. The present-day MOC is sensitive to freshwater anomalies and may collapse to a state with a…
The generation of synthetic tropical cyclone(TC) tracks for risk assessment is a critical application of preparedness for the impacts of climate change and disaster relief, particularly in North America. Insurance companies use these…
Identifying a suitable set of descriptors for modeling physical systems often utilizes either deep physical insights or statistical methods such as compressed sensing. In statistical learning, a class of methods known as structured sparsity…
Low-level clouds are ubiquitous in Earth's atmosphere, playing a crucial role in transporting heat, moisture, and momentum across the planet. Their evolution and interaction with other atmospheric components, such as aerosols, are essential…
The use of satellite imagery has become increasingly popular for disaster monitoring and response. After a disaster, it is important to prioritize rescue operations, disaster response and coordinate relief efforts. These have to be carried…
Complex systems are typically characterized by intricate internal dynamics that are often hard to elucidate. Ideally, this requires methods that allow to detect and classify in unsupervised way the microscopic dynamical events occurring in…
The diurnal cycle of tropical cyclones (TCs) is a daily cycle in clouds that appears in satellite images and may have implications for TC structure and intensity. The diurnal pattern can be seen in infrared (IR) satellite imagery as…
Climate change has been a common interest and the forefront of crucial political discussion and decision-making for many years. Shallow clouds play a significant role in understanding the Earth's climate, but they are challenging to…
Determining the location of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface circulation center -- "center-fixing" -- is a critical first step in the TC-forecasting process, affecting current/future estimates of track, intensity, and structure. Despite a…
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…
The rising number of extreme climate events in the past decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, given the sea-surface temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of…
Partitioning ocean flows into regions dynamically distinct from their surroundings based on material transport can assist search-and-rescue planning by reducing the search domain. The spectral clustering method partitions the domain by…
On small scales, the tropical atmosphere tends to be either moist or very dry. This defines two states that, on large scales, are separated by a sharp margin, well-identified by the anti-mode of the bimodal tropical column water vapor…
Modern machine learning approaches often prioritize performance at the cost of increased complexity, computational demands, and reduced interpretability. This paper introduces a novel framework that challenges this trend by reinterpreting…
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…
A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…
Persistent Lagrangian transport patterns at the ocean surface are revealed from Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) computed from daily climatological surface current velocities in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico (NWGoM). The velocities…
Climate change increases the frequency of extreme rainfall, placing a significant strain on urban infrastructures, especially Combined Sewer Systems (CSS). Overflows from overburdened CSS release untreated wastewater into surface waters,…
Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…