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Probabilistic forecasting provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems by representing predictions as probability distributions rather than deterministic trajectories. However, existing forecasting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-27 Tianlin Yang , Hailiang Du , Louis Aslett

We present a data-driven algorithm for efficiently computing stochastic control policies for general joint chance constrained optimal control problems. Our approach leverages the theory of kernel distribution embeddings, which allows…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-02-10 Adam J. Thorpe , Thomas Lew , Meeko M. K. Oishi , Marco Pavone

In recent years, there has been an increased need for the use of active systems - systems required to act automatically based on events, or changes in the environment. Such systems span many areas, from active databases to applications that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-09 Segev Wasserkrug , Avigdor Gal , Opher Etzion

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty. Minimizing overall prediction error often encourages models to prioritize informativeness over calibration,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-17 Ádám Jung , Domokos M. Kelen , András A. Benczúr

We present an operator-free, measure-theoretic approach to the conditional mean embedding (CME) as a random variable taking values in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. While the kernel mean embedding of unconditional distributions has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Junhyung Park , Krikamol Muandet

Probabilistic embeddings have several advantages over deterministic embeddings as they map each data point to a distribution, which better describes the uncertainty and complexity of data. Many works focus on adjusting the distribution…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Xiang Huang , Hao Peng , Li Sun , Hui Lin , Chunyang Liu , Jiang Cao , Philip S. Yu

This article gives a new insight of kernel-based (approximation) methods to solve the high-dimensional stochastic partial differential equations. We will combine the techniques of meshfree approximation and kriging interpolation to extend…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-02-20 Qi Ye

Application for semantic segmentation models in areas such as autonomous vehicles and human computer interaction require real-time predictive capabilities. The challenges of addressing real-time application is amplified by the need to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Ethan Goan , Clinton Fookes

We describe a method to perform functional operations on probability distributions of random variables. The method uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space representations of probability distributions, and it is applicable to all operations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-14 Bernhard Schölkopf , Krikamol Muandet , Kenji Fukumizu , Jonas Peters

Probabilistic programming is becoming increasingly popular thanks to its ability to specify problems with a certain degree of uncertainty. In this work, we focus on term rewriting, a well-known computational formalism. In particular, we…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Germán Vidal

Depth measures have gained popularity in the statistical literature for defining level sets in complex data structures like multivariate data, functional data, and graphs. Despite their versatility, integrating depth measures into…

We provide a theoretical foundation for non-parametric estimation of functions of random variables using kernel mean embeddings. We show that for any continuous function $f$, consistent estimators of the mean embedding of a random variable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-04 Carl-Johann Simon-Gabriel , Adam Ścibior , Ilya Tolstikhin , Bernhard Schölkopf

In order to anticipate rare and impactful events, we propose to quantify the worst-case risk under distributional ambiguity using a recent development in kernel methods -- the kernel mean embedding. Specifically, we formulate the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Jia-Jie Zhu , Wittawat Jitkrittum , Moritz Diehl , Bernhard Schölkopf

We study aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation in a learned regressive system dynamics model. Disentangling aleatoric uncertainty (the inherent randomness of the system) from epistemic uncertainty (the lack of data) is crucial for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-21 Zhiyu An , Zhibo Hou , Wan Du

Advances in architectural design, data availability, and compute have driven remarkable progress in semantic segmentation. Yet, these models often rely on relaxed Bayesian assumptions, omitting critical uncertainty information needed for…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-02-19 M. M. A. Valiuddin , R. J. G. van Sloun , C. G. A. Viviers , P. H. N. de With , F. van der Sommen

When we use simulation to assess the performance of stochastic systems, the input models used to drive simulation experiments are often estimated from finite real-world data. There exist both input model and simulation estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Wei Xie , Cheng Li , Yuefeng Wu , Pu Zhang

Representing token embeddings as probability distributions over learned manifolds allows for more flexible contextual inference, reducing representational rigidity while enhancing semantic granularity. Comparative evaluations demonstrate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Christopher Nightingale , Dominic Lavington , Jonathan Thistlethwaite , Sebastian Penhaligon , Thomas Belinski , David Boldo

Stochastic embedding transitions introduce a probabilistic mechanism for adjusting token representations dynamically during inference, mitigating the constraints imposed through static or deterministic embeddings. A transition framework was…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Stefan Whitaker , Colin Sisate , Marcel Windsor , Nikolai Fairweather , Tarquin Goldborough , Oskar Lindenfeld

Probabilistic programming is related to a compositional approach to stochastic modeling by switching from discrete to continuous time dynamics. In continuous time, an operator-algebra semantics is available in which processes proceeding in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-05 Eric Mjolsness