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Granger-causality in the frequency domain is an emerging tool to analyze the causal relationship between two time series. We propose a bootstrap test on unconditional and conditional Granger-causality spectra, as well as on their…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-07 Matteo Farné , Angela Montanari

Schierenberg et al. [Phys. Rev. E 85, 061130 (2012)] recently applied the Wigner surmise, i.e., substitution of \infty \times \infty matrices by their 2 \times 2 counterparts for the computation of level spacing distributions, to random…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-11 Shinsuke M. Nishigaki

We try to design a simple model exhibiting self-organized criticality, which is amenable to a rigorous mathematical analysis. To this end, we modify the generalized Ising Curie-Weiss model by implementing an automatic control of the inverse…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-10 Matthias Gorny

We obtain bounds to quantify the distributional approximation in the delta method for vector statistics (the sample mean of $n$ independent random vectors) for normal and non-normal limits, measured using smooth test functions. For normal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-11 Robert E. Gaunt , Heather Sutcliffe

I propose kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects in the setting where an analyst has access to a selected sample rather than a random sample; only for select…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-08-24 Rahul Singh

We propose and analyze a generalized splitting method to sample approximately from a distribution conditional on the occurrence of a rare event. This has important applications in a variety of contexts in operations research, engineering,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-10 Zdravko I. Botev , Pierre L'Ecuyer

Let \phi(G) be the minimum conductance of an undirected graph G, and let 0=\lambda_1 <= \lambda_2 <=... <= \lambda_n <= 2 be the eigenvalues of the normalized Laplacian matrix of G. We prove that for any graph G and any k >= 2, \phi(G) =…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2013-01-24 Tsz Chiu Kwok , Lap Chi Lau , Yin Tat Lee , Shayan Oveis Gharan , Luca Trevisan

We consider $N\times N$ symmetric or hermitian random matrices with independent, identically distributed entries where the probability distribution for each matrix element is given by a measure $\nu$ with a subexponential decay. We prove…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2017-08-23 Laszlo Erdos

Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non-Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the $\argmax$ of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high-level sufficient conditions under which such…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-24 Matias D. Cattaneo , Gregory Fletcher Cox , Michael Jansson , Kenichi Nagasawa

Using a semi-parametric approach based on the fourth-order Edgeworth expansion for the unknown signal distribution, we derive an explicit expression for the likelihood detection statistic in the presence of non-normally distributed…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-19 Lionel Martellini , Tania Regimbau

In this paper, we consider a weighted local linear estimator based on the inverse selection probability for nonparametric regression with missing covariates at random. The asymptotic distribution of the maximal deviation between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-03 Li Cai , Lijie Gu , Qihua Wang , Suojin Wang

The problem of estimating high-dimensional network models arises naturally in the analysis of many physical, biological and socio-economic systems. Examples include stock price fluctuations in financial markets and gene regulatory networks…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-09 Sumanta Basu , Ali Shojaie , George Michailidis

In this paper, we derive optimality results for greedy Bayesian-network search algorithms that perform single-edge modifications at each step and use asymptotically consistent scoring criteria. Our results extend those of Meek (1997) and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 David Maxwell Chickering , Christopher Meek

Standard Gibbs sampling applied to a multivariate normal distribution with a specified precision matrix is equivalent in fundamental ways to the Gauss-Seidel iterative solution of linear equations in the precision matrix. Specifically, the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-05-14 Colin Fox , Albert Parker

In this paper, we study random subsampling of Gaussian process regression, one of the simplest approximation baselines, from a theoretical perspective. Although subsampling discards a large part of training data, we show provable guarantees…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-29 Kohei Hayashi , Masaaki Imaizumi , Yuichi Yoshida

In the context of inferring a Bayesian network structure (directed acyclic graph, DAG for short), we devise a non-reversible continuous time Markov chain, the ``Causal Zig-Zag sampler'', that targets a probability distribution over classes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-12 Moritz Schauer , Marcel Wienöbst

Using Stein's method and the Malliavin calculus of variations, we derive explicit estimates for the Gamma approximation of functionals of a Poisson measure. In particular, conditions are presented under which the distribution of a sequence…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-16 Giovanni Peccati , Christoph Thaele

We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-21 Juraj Bodik , Olivier C. Pasche

Gram's Law describes a pattern that frequently occurs in the distribution of the non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function along the critical line. Whenever Gram's Law holds true, it reduces the difficulty of computing the…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-02 Cătălin Hanga , Christopher Hughes

In the setting of entangled single-sample distributions, the goal is to estimate some common parameter shared by a family of distributions, given one \emph{single} sample from each distribution. We study mean estimation and linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-08 Hui Yuan , Yingyu Liang
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