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There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
We analyze the PCMDI/CMIP3 simulations performed by climate models (CMs) using pre-industrial and SRESA1B scenarios. Relatively large biases are present for most CMs when global energy budgets and when the atmospheric, oceanic, and land…
The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change as well as an accelerant for future global warming. Since 1978, Arctic sea ice has been measured using satellite-based microwave sensing; however, different…
This paper presents the first estimate of the seasonal cycle of ocean and sea ice net heat and freshwater (FW) fluxes around the boundary of the Arctic Ocean. The ocean transports are estimated primarily using 138 moored instruments…
The coupled Arctic system is in rapid transition and is set to undergo further dramatic changes over the coming decades. These changes will lead most likely to an ice-free ocean in summer, expected before mid-century. The Arctic will become…
The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such tipping can have significant climate impacts, it is important to understand the mechanisms at play…
Monitoring the dynamics of global land-ocean cover is fundamental for regulating the Earth's climate and sustaining terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, existing datasets and research often exhibit limitations in temporal resolution…
Observations suggest that the earth's surface has been warming relative to the troposphere for the last 25 years; this is not only difficult to explain but also contrary to the results of climate models. We provide new evidence that the…
We may anticipate that climate change will bring changes to the intensity and variability of near surface winds, either through local effects or by altering the large-scale flow. The impact of climate change on European wind resources has…
Changing climate conditions threaten the natural permafrost thaw-freeze cycle, leading to year-round soil temperatures above 0{\deg}C. In Alaska, the warming of the topmost permafrost layer, known as the active layer, signals elevated…
The physics of planetary climate features a variety of complex systems that are challenging to model as they feature turbulent flows. A key example is the heat flux from the upper ocean to the underside of sea ice which provides a key…
Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…
Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a…
A new method of regime shift detection in the correlation coefficient is proposed. The method is designed to find multiple change-points with unknown locations in time series. It signals a possible regime shift in real time and allows for…
Predicting Arctic sea ice extent is a notoriously difficult forecasting problem, even for lead times as short as one month. Motivated by Arctic intraannual variability phenomena such as reemergence of sea surface temperature and sea ice…
Using a gap-free, millennial-resolution ice-core record spanning the last 130,000 years, we identify the feedback architecture between Antarctic temperature and atmospheric CO$_2$. The series are found to be cointegrated, justifying…
The reanalysis datasets provide very important sources for investigating the climate dynamics and climate changes in Antarctica. In this paper, three major reanalysis data are compared with Antarctic station data over the last 35 years: the…
The predictability of extreme winter regimes in the regions of Northern Eurasia depending on El Ni\~no phenomena is assessed using data from long-term meteorological observations. The frequency of extremely warm and extremely cold winters…
Global warming presents an unprecedented challenge to our planet however comprehensive understanding remains hindered by geographical biases temporal limitations and lack of standardization in existing research. An end to end visual…
Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…