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In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Steven P. Lalley

Much of the research on the behavior of the SIS model on networks has concerned the infinite size limit; in particular the phase transition between a state where outbreaks can reach a finite fraction of the population, and a state where…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-07-13 Petter Holme

We study how long the SIRS process persists or how quickly it reaches extinction across various network topologies. Our results provide a three-part characterization of this process: In finite sparse graphs, we prove the existence of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-01 Phuc Lam , Oanh Nguyen

The quasi-deterministic limit of the generic extinction transition is considered within the framework of standard epidemiological models. The susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model is known to exhibit a transition from extinction to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 David A. Kessler , Nadav M. Shnerb

We present a degree-based theoretical framework to study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on time-varying (rewired) configuration model networks. Using this framework, we provide a detailed analysis of the stationary…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-04-16 Guillaume St-Onge , Jean-Gabriel Young , Edward Laurence , Charles Murphy , Louis J. Dubé

Models for resident infectious diseases, like the SIRS model, may settle into an endemic state with constant numbers of susceptible ($S$), infected ($I$) and recovered ($R$) individuals, where recovered individuals attain a temporary…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-11-05 Daniel Henrik Nevermann , Claudius Gros

We study seasonal epidemic spreading in a susceptible-infected-removed-susceptible (SIRS) model on smallworld graphs. We derive a mean-field description that accurately captures the salient features of the model, most notably a phase…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-03-26 Daniel Malz , Andrea Pizzi , Andreas Nunnenkamp , Johannes Knolle

Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations, and may bounce…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-13 Dan Lu , Shunkun Yang , Jiaquan Zhang , Huijuan Wang , Daqing Li

For a susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) infection model in a heterogeneous population, we present simple formulae giving the leading-order asymptotic (large population) behaviour of the mean persistence time, from an endemic state to…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-12 Damian Clancy

In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-09-25 L. D. Valdez , P. A. Macri , L. A. Braunstein

Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-08-27 Kanako Mizuno , Kazue Kudo

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-29 Frank G. Ball , David J. Sirl , Pieter Trapman

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-23 Graham Brightwell , Thomas House , Malwina Luczak

The aim of the study was to compare the epidemic spread on static and dynamic small-world networks. The network was constructed as a 2-dimensional Watts-Strogatz model (500x500 square lattice with additional shortcuts), and the dynamics…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-06-28 J. K. Ochab , P. F. Góra

We present the mathematical analysis of generalized complex contagions in clustered multiplex networks for susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-like dynamics. The model is intended to understand diffusion of influence, or any other…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-02-01 Yong Zhuang , Alex Arenas , Osman Yağan

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-12-17 Li Chen , Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad , Weiran Cai , Peter Grassberger

We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-08 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky

A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-07-31 Frank Ball , Tom Britton , David Sirl

We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-08 Frank Ball , David Sirl , Pieter Trapman

The spread of an infectious disease can be promoted by previous infections with other pathogens. This cooperative effect can give rise to violent outbreaks, reflecting the presence of an abrupt epidemic transition. As for other diffusive…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-02-06 Peng-Bi Cui , Francesca Colaiori , Claudio Castellano