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We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

For a large class of orthogonal basis functions, there has been a recent identification of expansion methods for computing accurate, stable approximations of a quantity of interest. This paper presents, within the context of uncertainty…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-13 Jerrad Hampton , Alireza Doostan

The Stochastic Series Expansion method (SSE) is a Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) technique working directly in the imaginary time continuum and thus avoiding "Trotter discretization" errors. Using a non-local "operator-loop update" it allows…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Dorneich , M. Troyer

The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure for testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-02 Elena Bortolato , Francesco Bertolino , Monica Musio , Laura Ventura

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) have seen widespread use in the context of uncertainty quantification. However, their application to structural reliability problems has been hindered by the limited performance of PCE in the tails of the…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-10 S. Marelli , B. Sudret

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

In this paper, we present an abstract framework to obtain convergence rates for the approximation of random evolution equations corresponding to a random family of forms determined by finite-dimensional noise. The full discretization error…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-19 Katharina Klioba , Christian Seifert

We consider the linear regression problem. We propose the S-Lasso procedure to estimate the unknown regression parameters. This estimator enjoys sparsity of the representation while taking into account correlation between successive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-10-15 Mohamed Hebiri

The spatial random-effects model is flexible in modeling spatial covariance functions, and is computationally efficient for spatial prediction via fixed rank kriging. However, the success of this model depends on an appropriate set of basis…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-23 ShengLi Tzeng , Hsin-Cheng Huang

Sparse estimation of the precision matrix under high-dimensional scaling constitutes a canonical problem in statistics and machine learning. Numerous regression and likelihood based approaches, many frequentist and some Bayesian in nature…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-20 Peyman Jalali , Kshitij Khare , George Michailidis

Stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) represent a very active research field with numerous recent developments and breakthrough results. There are several well-established approaches and methods used to construct solutions for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-27 Christian Kuehn , Alexandra Neamtu

Identifying a suitable set of descriptors for modeling physical systems often utilizes either deep physical insights or statistical methods such as compressed sensing. In statistical learning, a class of methods known as structured sparsity…

Materials Science · Physics 2019-10-30 Zhidong Leong , Teck Leong Tan

The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the complexity of a model and can also be viewed as the number of subpopulations. Despite its relevance, there has been limited research in this area. A novel…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 José E. Chacón , Javier Fernández Serrano

Sketch-and-solve (SAS) is a very successful method to efficiently estimate the solution of heavily overdetermined large linear least squares problems. It uses random sketching to reduce the size of the problem, hence reducing the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Irina-Beatrice Haas , Michael B. Giles , Yuji Nakatsukasa

Density functional theory (DFT)-based simulations of materials have first-principles accuracy, but are very computationally expensive. For simulating various properties of multi-component alloys, the cluster expansion (CE) technique has…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-04-01 Jacob Jeffries , Bochuan Sun , Enrique Martinez

The regularity and characterization of solutions to degenerate, quasilinear SPDE is studied. Our results are two-fold: First, we prove regularity results for solutions to certain degenerate, quasilinear SPDE driven by Lipschitz continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-23 Benjamin Gess , Michael Röckner

In this article, we examine a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) driven by a symmetric $\alpha$-stable (S$\alpha$S) L\'evy noise, that is multiplied by a linear function $\sigma(u)=u$ of the solution. The solution is…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-20 Raluca M. Balan , Juan J. Jiménez

The smoothing spline is one of the most popular curve-fitting methods, partly because of empirical evidence supporting its effectiveness and partly because of its elegant mathematical formulation. However, there are two obstacles that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-09-11 Yu Ryan Yue , Daniel Simpson , Finn Lindgren , Håvard Rue

Generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansions are well established for forward uncertainty propagation in many application areas. Although the associated computational effort may be reduced in comparison to Monte Carlo techniques, for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-07-26 Niklas Georg , Ulrich Römer

Presence of a high-dimensional stochastic parameter space with discontinuities poses major computational challenges in analyzing and quantifying the effects of the uncertainties in a physical system. In this paper, we propose a stochastic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-08-01 Anindya Bhaduri , Yanyan He , Michael D. Shields , Lori Graham-Brady , Robert M. Kirby