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Exact upper bounds on the Winsorised-tilted mean of a random variable in terms of its first two moments are given. Such results are needed in work on nonuniform Berry--Esseen-type bounds for general nonlinear statistics. As another…
If the prior probability distributions of all possible hypothetical true means and all possible observed means of a continuous variable are conditional on the universal set of all numbers (i.e., before the nature of a study is known and a…
In this article, we investigate posterior convergence of nonparametric binary and Poisson regression under possible model misspecification, assuming general stochastic process prior with appropriate properties. Our model setup and objective…
Discrete state spaces represent a major computational challenge to statistical inference, since the computation of normalisation constants requires summation over large or possibly infinite sets, which can be impractical. This paper…
This article surveys computational methods for posterior inference with intractable likelihoods, that is where the likelihood function is unavailable in closed form, or where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible. We review recent…
One of the fundamental problems in Bayesian statistics is the approximation of the posterior distribution. Gibbs sampler and coordinate ascent variational inference are renownedly utilized approximation techniques that rely on stochastic…
Quantile regression is often used when a comprehensive relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables is desired. The traditional frequentists' approach to quantile regression has been well developed around…
We study the behavior of the posterior distribution in high-dimensional Bayesian Gaussian linear regression models having $p\gg n$, with $p$ the number of predictors and $n$ the sample size. Our focus is on obtaining quantitative finite…
Using Stein's method techniques, we develop a framework which allows one to bound the error terms arising from approximation by the Laplace distribution and apply it to the study of random sums of mean zero random variables. As a corollary,…
This work presents several expected generalization error bounds based on the Wasserstein distance. More specifically, it introduces full-dataset, single-letter, and random-subset bounds, and their analogues in the randomized subsample…
We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The…
We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and…
We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…
In this article, we discuss the basic ideas of a general procedure to adapt the Stein-Chen method to bound the distance between conditional distributions. From an integration-by-parts formula (IBPF), we derive a Stein operator whose…
The first part of this work considers the entropy of the sum of (possibly dependent and non-identically distributed) Bernoulli random variables. Upper bounds on the error that follows from an approximation of this entropy by the entropy of…
Group-invariant probability distributions appear in many data-generative models in machine learning, such as graphs, point clouds, and images. In practice, one often needs to estimate divergences between such distributions. In this work, we…
We give a new proof of VC bounds where we avoid the use of symmetrization and use a shadow sample of arbitrary size. We also improve on the variance term. This results in better constants, as shown on numerical examples. Moreover our bounds…
We present a PAC-Bayes-style generalization bound which enables the replacement of the KL-divergence with a variety of Integral Probability Metrics (IPM). We provide instances of this bound with the IPM being the total variation metric and…
Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…